Livingston
vs
Morton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Livingston 2–0 Morton
The model makes it 68% Livingston, 19% draw, 13% Morton — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Livingston 2.69, Morton 0.92.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
One-sided: Livingston are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Livingston's rating is built from 13 Scottish Championship matches and Morton's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Livingston are 5th on 20 points from 13 games; Morton are 9th on 7 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Livingston are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Stenhousemuir.
- Morton have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Queen's Park.
- Last 6 meetings: Livingston 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 September 2026, ended Morton 1–4 Livingston.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Livingston vs Morton
Has the model earned this number?
Livingston at 68%: of 415 settled 65–100% forecasts, 66.0% came in (average 73.3%). Read it as optimistic. The full record.
Form going into Livingston vs Morton
Livingston
Championship
- W3-0away to Stenhousemuir30 October 2026
- W1-0Arbroath24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Dunfermline17 October 2026
- L1-2Partick10 October 2026
- L1-2Ayr Utd3 October 2026
Morton
Championship
- W2-0Queen's Park17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Arbroath10 October 2026
- L1-2Raith Rovers3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Inverness CT25 September 2026
- L0-1Dunfermline19 September 2026
What these results say
- Livingston scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Morton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Livingston | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 20 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Livingston vs Morton
- 11 September 2026Morton 1–4 LivingstonChampionship
- 12 April 2025Morton 1–2 LivingstonChampionship
- 25 February 2025Livingston 3–2 MortonChampionship
- 7 December 2024Morton 0–0 LivingstonChampionship
- 12 November 2024Livingston 2–1 MortonChallenge Cup
- 24 August 2024Livingston 1–1 MortonChampionship
The two sides
Livingston carry a model rating of 6.22 against 5.84 for Morton.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.69 goals for Livingston and 0.92 for Morton.
Livingston rate 0.54 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Morton rate 0.40 and 3.06.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Livingston a 9.1% chance of the title and Morton 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Livingston the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.69 expected goals for Livingston against 0.92 for Morton. Livingston's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/3.06 for Morton.
How the model reaches 68% for Livingston to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Livingston to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Livingston's ratings add 11 points and Morton's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 68%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Livingston's ratings57%+11
- Morton's ratings68%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Livingston at home · Morton away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Livingston 13, Morton 11.
Livingston score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Morton have let in 5 there.
Morton score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Livingston have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Livingston
- at Queen's Park21 Nov · Championshipwin 51%
- vs Raith Rovers4 Dec · Championshipwin 49%
- at Ayr Utd12 Dec · Championshipwin 43%
- vs Dunfermline19 Dec · Championshipwin 46%
Morton
- at Dunfermline21 Nov · Championshipwin 15%
- vs Inverness CT5 Dec · Championshipwin 27%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.