Raith Rovers
vs
Dunfermline
Championship prediction
Our model says: Raith Rovers 1–0 Dunfermline
The model makes it 47% Raith Rovers, 28% draw, 25% Dunfermline — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Raith Rovers 1.61, Dunfermline 1.03.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Raith Rovers's rating is built from 47 Scottish Championship matches and Dunfermline's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Raith Rovers are 3rd on 21 points from 11 games; Dunfermline are 5th on 15 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Raith Rovers are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Stenhousemuir.
- Dunfermline are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Partick.
- Last 6 meetings: Dunfermline 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 August 2026, ended Dunfermline 1–0 Raith Rovers.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Raith Rovers at 47% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline
Raith Rovers
Championship
- D1-1away to Stenhousemuir17 October 2026
- W2-0Queen's Park10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Morton3 October 2026
- L0-2Livingston25 September 2026
- D0-0away to Partick19 September 2026
Dunfermline
Championship
- D1-1Partick20 October 2026
- D0-0Livingston17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ayr Utd10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Morton19 September 2026
- W2-0Queen's Park12 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Raith Rovers had two goals or fewer.
- Dunfermline went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Dunfermline had two goals or fewer.
- Dunfermline scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline
- 28 August 2026Dunfermline 1–0 Raith RoversChampionship
- 14 March 2026Dunfermline 3–0 Raith RoversChampionship
- 27 December 2025Raith Rovers 1–2 DunfermlineChampionship
- 17 October 2025Dunfermline 2–0 Raith RoversChampionship
- 22 August 2025Raith Rovers 2–0 DunfermlineChampionship
- 14 March 2025Raith Rovers 2–0 DunfermlineChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Raith Rovers carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.11 for Dunfermline. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Raith Rovers and 1.03 for Dunfermline. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Raith Rovers rate 0.52 in attack and 1.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dunfermline rate 0.43 and 1.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Raith Rovers a 15.9% chance of the title and Dunfermline 2.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raith Rovers the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Raith Rovers against 1.03 for Dunfermline. Raith Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.9 for Dunfermline.
How the model reaches 47% for Raith Rovers to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Raith Rovers to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Raith Rovers's ratings take away 30 points and Dunfermline's ratings add 33 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Raith Rovers's ratings14%−30
- Dunfermline's ratings47%+33
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Raith Rovers at home · Dunfermline away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Raith Rovers 11, Dunfermline 10.
Raith Rovers score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Dunfermline have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Raith Rovers
- at Ayr Utd14 Nov · Championshipwin 41%
- vs Partick21 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
- at Livingston4 Dec · Championshipwin 32%
Dunfermline
- vs Arbroath14 Nov · Championshipwin 56%
- vs Morton21 Nov · Championshipwin 60%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.