Dunfermline
vs
Arbroath
Championship prediction
Our model says: Dunfermline 1–0 Arbroath
The model makes it 58% Dunfermline, 25% draw, 17% Arbroath — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Dunfermline 1.81, Arbroath 0.73.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
One-sided: Dunfermline are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Dunfermline's rating is built from 48 Scottish Championship matches and Arbroath's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Dunfermline are 4th on 21 points from 12 games; Arbroath are 8th on 11 points from 12 games — Championship.
- Dunfermline are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Stenhousemuir.
- Arbroath are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Livingston.
- Last 6 meetings: Arbroath 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Arbroath 1–1 Dunfermline.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dunfermline vs Arbroath
Has the model earned this number?
Dunfermline at 58%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dunfermline vs Arbroath
Dunfermline
Championship
- W1-0away to Stenhousemuir27 October 2026
- W1-0away to Queen's Park24 October 2026
- D1-1Partick20 October 2026
- D0-0Livingston17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ayr Utd10 October 2026
Arbroath
Championship
- L0-1away to Livingston24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Inverness CT17 October 2026
- L1-2Morton10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Partick3 October 2026
- W2-1Queen's Park25 September 2026
What these results say
- Dunfermline went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Dunfermline had two goals or fewer.
- Dunfermline scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arbroath conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arbroath failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dunfermline | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 21 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dunfermline vs Arbroath
- 5 September 2026Arbroath 1–1 DunfermlineChampionship
- 8 May 2026Arbroath 0–0 DunfermlinePremiership
- 5 May 2026Dunfermline 1–0 ArbroathPremiership
- 1 May 2026Dunfermline 0–0 ArbroathChampionship
- 21 February 2026Arbroath 4–2 DunfermlineChampionship
- 6 December 2025Dunfermline 1–2 ArbroathChampionship
The two sides
Dunfermline carry a model rating of 6.17 against 5.86 for Arbroath.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for Dunfermline and 0.73 for Arbroath.
Dunfermline rate 0.44 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arbroath rate 0.35 and 2.53.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dunfermline a 6.5% chance of the title and Arbroath 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dunfermline the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Dunfermline against 0.73 for Arbroath. Dunfermline's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.35/2.53 for Arbroath.
How the model reaches 58% for Dunfermline to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dunfermline to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Dunfermline's ratings add 7 points and Arbroath's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Dunfermline's ratings49%+7
- Arbroath's ratings58%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Dunfermline at home · Arbroath away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Dunfermline 12, Arbroath 12.
Arbroath score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Dunfermline have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Dunfermline
- vs Morton21 Nov · Championshipwin 63%
- at Partick5 Dec · Championshipwin 22%
- vs Stenhousemuir12 Dec · Championshipwin 48%
Arbroath
- vs Stenhousemuir21 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- at Queen's Park5 Dec · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Partick11 Dec · Championshipwin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.