Dunfermline
vs
Inverness CT
Championship prediction
Our model says: Dunfermline 2–1 Inverness CT
The model makes it 53% Dunfermline, 25% draw, 22% Inverness CT — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dunfermline 1.91, Inverness CT 1.04.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Dunfermline: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dunfermline are 6th on 14 points from 9 games; Inverness CT are 4th on 16 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Dunfermline are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Livingston.
- Inverness CT have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Arbroath.
- Last 6 meetings: Inverness CT 1 win to 0, 5 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Inverness CT 0–0 Dunfermline.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dunfermline vs Inverness CT
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dunfermline at 53% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dunfermline vs Inverness CT
Dunfermline
- D0-0Livingston17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ayr Utd10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Morton19 September 2026
- W2-0Queen's Park12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arbroath5 September 2026
Inverness CT
- W2-0Arbroath17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Queen's Park13 October 2026
- W2-0Stenhousemuir10 October 2026
- W2-0Morton25 September 2026
- D2-2away to Livingston19 September 2026
What these results say
- Dunfermline went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Dunfermline had two goals or fewer.
- Dunfermline scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inverness CT scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dunfermline | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 14 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dunfermline
Chance to finish in the top four · 67% today
Inverness CT
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Dunfermline vs Inverness CT
- 1 August 2026Inverness CT 0–0 DunfermlineChampionship
- 27 April 2024Dunfermline 1–1 Inverness CTChampionship
- 27 February 2024Inverness CT 0–0 DunfermlineChampionship
- 18 November 2023Dunfermline 1–1 Inverness CTChampionship
- 2 September 2023Inverness CT 1–1 DunfermlineChampionship
- 26 March 2022Inverness CT 2–0 DunfermlineChampionship
The two sides
Dunfermline carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.13 for Inverness CT. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Dunfermline and 1.04 for Inverness CT. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dunfermline rate 0.54 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inverness CT rate 0.51 and 2.17.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Inverness CT, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dunfermline a 16.2% chance of the title and Inverness CT 2.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dunfermline the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Dunfermline against 1.04 for Inverness CT. Dunfermline's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.17 for Inverness CT.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dunfermline at home · Inverness CT away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Dunfermline 9, Inverness CT 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dunfermline
- at Raith Rovers6 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
- vs Arbroath14 Nov · Championshipwin 44%
Inverness CT
- vs Livingston7 Nov · Championshipwin 41%
- at Partick14 Nov · Championshipwin 22%
- vs Ayr Utd20 Nov · Championshipwin 56%
- at Morton5 Dec · Championshipwin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.