League A - 5 · 14 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Portugal vs Denmark UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Portugal 2–1 Denmark

The model makes it 42% Portugal, 27% draw, 31% Denmark — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Portugal 1.59, Denmark 1.28.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Portugal's rating is built from its last 5 matches; Denmark's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Portugal are top on 12 points from 4 games; Denmark are 2nd on 6 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
  • Portugal are unbeaten in their last 4 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Norway.
  • Denmark have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Wales.
  • Last 4 meetings: Portugal 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 October 2026, ended Denmark 2–4 Portugal.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Portugal vs Denmark

58%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Portugal win Draw Denmark win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–08%
  4. 1–27%
  5. 2–07%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Portugal first; the other scorelines share the remaining 44%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Portugal at 42%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Portugal vs Denmark

Portugal

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-1Norway4 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Denmark1 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Norway27 September 2026
  • W1-0Wales24 September 2026

Denmark

UEFA Nations League

  • W1-0away to Wales4 October 2026
  • L2-4Portugal1 October 2026
  • W2-0Wales27 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Norway24 September 2026

What these results say

  • Portugal won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Portugal scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Portugal conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Denmark scored in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Portugal440094+512
2Denmark42027706

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Portugal vs Denmark

  • 1 October 2026Denmark 2–4 PortugalUEFA Nations League
  • 23 March 2025Portugal 5–2 DenmarkUEFA Nations League
  • 20 March 2025Denmark 1–0 PortugalUEFA Nations League
  • 13 June 2012Denmark 2–3 PortugalEuro Championship

Leading scorers: Portugal and Denmark

Portugal

GoalsAssists

  • Gonçalo Ramos31
  • João Félix31

Denmark

GoalsAssists

  • R. Højlund30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Portugal the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Portugal against 1.28 for Denmark. Portugal's attack/defence rating is 1.53/0.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.46/0.77 for Denmark.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 42% for Portugal to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Portugal to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Portugal's ratings add 1 point and Denmark's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage38%+2
  3. Both sides at this match's level39%+1
  4. Portugal's ratings40%+1
  5. Denmark's ratings42%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Portugal

  • at Wales17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 50%

Denmark

  • vs Norway17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 39%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.