Arbroath
vs
Raith Rovers
Championship prediction
Our model says: Arbroath 1–0 Raith Rovers
The model makes it 49% Arbroath, 26% draw, 25% Raith Rovers — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Arbroath 1.72, Raith Rovers 1.06.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Arbroath are 8th on 11 points from 11 games; Raith Rovers are 2nd on 21 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Arbroath are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Inverness CT.
- Raith Rovers are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Stenhousemuir.
- Last 6 meetings: Raith Rovers 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 September 2026, ended Raith Rovers 4–0 Arbroath.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arbroath vs Raith Rovers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arbroath at 49% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Arbroath vs Raith Rovers
Arbroath
- L0-2away to Inverness CT17 October 2026
- L1-2Morton10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Partick3 October 2026
- W2-1Queen's Park25 September 2026
- L0-1away to Stenhousemuir19 September 2026
Raith Rovers
- D1-1away to Stenhousemuir17 October 2026
- W2-0Queen's Park10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Morton3 October 2026
- L0-2Livingston25 September 2026
- D0-0away to Partick19 September 2026
What these results say
- Arbroath conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arbroath failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Raith Rovers had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 11 |
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Arbroath
Chance to finish in the top four · 36% today
Raith Rovers
Chance to finish in the top four · 65% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Arbroath vs Raith Rovers
- 12 September 2026Raith Rovers 4–0 ArbroathChampionship
- 18 April 2026Arbroath 2–1 Raith RoversChampionship
- 10 January 2026Raith Rovers 2–3 ArbroathChampionship
- 22 November 2025Arbroath 0–0 Raith RoversChampionship
- 27 September 2025Raith Rovers 3–0 ArbroathChampionship
- 3 May 2024Raith Rovers 5–0 ArbroathChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Arbroath carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.18 for Raith Rovers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Arbroath and 1.06 for Raith Rovers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arbroath rate 0.53 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Raith Rovers rate 0.52 and 1.99.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Raith Rovers, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arbroath a 4.6% chance of the title and Raith Rovers 14.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arbroath the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Arbroath against 1.06 for Raith Rovers. Arbroath's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.99 for Raith Rovers.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arbroath at home · Raith Rovers away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Arbroath 11, Raith Rovers 11.
Arbroath score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Raith Rovers have let in 3 there.
Raith Rovers score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Arbroath have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Arbroath
- vs Ayr Utd7 Nov · Championshipwin 62%
- at Dunfermline14 Nov · Championshipwin 28%
- vs Stenhousemuir21 Nov · Championshipwin 43%
- at Queen's Park5 Dec · Championshipwin 53%
Raith Rovers
- vs Dunfermline6 Nov · Championshipwin 39%
- at Ayr Utd14 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
- vs Partick21 Nov · Championshipwin 39%
- at Livingston4 Dec · Championshipwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.