Partick
vs
Inverness CT
Championship prediction
Our model says: Partick 1–0 Inverness CT
The model makes it 51% Partick, 27% draw, 22% Inverness CT — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Partick 1.68, Inverness CT 0.94.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
Edge to Partick: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Partick's rating is built from 48 Scottish Championship matches and Inverness CT's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Partick are top on 25 points from 12 games; Inverness CT are 6th on 19 points from 12 games — Championship.
- Partick are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Stenhousemuir.
- Inverness CT have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Raith Rovers.
- Last 6 meetings: Partick 1 win to 0, 5 draws; the most recent, 21 August 2026, ended Inverness CT 1–1 Partick.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Partick vs Inverness CT
Has the model earned this number?
Partick at 51%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Partick vs Inverness CT
Partick
Championship
- W3-0Stenhousemuir24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Dunfermline20 October 2026
- W1-0away to Ayr Utd16 October 2026
- W2-1away to Livingston10 October 2026
- W3-0Arbroath3 October 2026
Inverness CT
Championship
- W2-0away to Raith Rovers24 October 2026
- W2-0Arbroath17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Queen's Park13 October 2026
- W2-0Stenhousemuir10 October 2026
- W2-0Morton25 September 2026
What these results say
- Partick went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Partick scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Partick won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inverness CT scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inverness CT won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inverness CT kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 25 |
| 6 | Inverness CT | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Partick vs Inverness CT
- 21 August 2026Inverness CT 1–1 PartickChampionship
- 13 January 2026Partick 3–3 Inverness CTChallenge Cup
- 30 March 2024Partick 1–0 Inverness CTChampionship
- 17 February 2024Inverness CT 3–3 PartickChampionship
- 23 December 2023Partick 1–1 Inverness CTChampionship
- 7 October 2023Inverness CT 0–0 PartickChampionship
The two sides
Partick carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.18 for Inverness CT.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Partick and 0.94 for Inverness CT.
Partick rate 0.51 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inverness CT rate 0.53 and 2.02.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Partick a 61.7% chance of the title and Inverness CT 8.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Partick the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Partick against 0.94 for Inverness CT. Partick's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.02 for Inverness CT.
How the model reaches 51% for Partick to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Partick to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Partick's ratings add 3 points and Inverness CT's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Partick's ratings46%+3
- Inverness CT's ratings51%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Partick at home · Inverness CT away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Partick 12, Inverness CT 12.
Inverness CT score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Partick have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Partick
- at Raith Rovers21 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- vs Dunfermline5 Dec · Championshipwin 49%
- at Arbroath11 Dec · Championshipwin 50%
Inverness CT
- vs Ayr Utd20 Nov · Championshipwin 58%
- at Morton5 Dec · Championshipwin 48%
- vs Queen's Park12 Dec · Championshipwin 66%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.