Ayr Utd
vs
Raith Rovers
Championship prediction
Our model says: Ayr Utd 1–2 Raith Rovers
The model makes it 34% Ayr Utd, 28% draw, 38% Raith Rovers — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Ayr Utd 1.36, Raith Rovers 1.46.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
Edge to Raith Rovers: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Ayr Utd's rating is built from 47 Scottish Championship matches and Raith Rovers's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Ayr Utd are 7th on 12 points from 11 games; Raith Rovers are 3rd on 21 points from 12 games — Championship.
- Ayr Utd have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Partick.
- Raith Rovers have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Inverness CT.
- Last 6 meetings: Raith Rovers 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended Raith Rovers 2–0 Ayr Utd.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers
Has the model earned this number?
Raith Rovers at 38%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers
Ayr Utd
Championship
- L0-1Partick16 October 2026
- D1-1Dunfermline10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Livingston3 October 2026
- L0-1Stenhousemuir25 September 2026
- W2-0away to Queen's Park18 September 2026
Raith Rovers
Championship
- L0-2Inverness CT24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Stenhousemuir17 October 2026
- W2-0Queen's Park10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Morton3 October 2026
- L0-2Livingston25 September 2026
What these results say
- Ayr Utd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ayr Utd had two goals or fewer.
- Raith Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Raith Rovers had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers
- 22 August 2026Raith Rovers 2–0 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 27 March 2026Raith Rovers 3–0 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 31 January 2026Ayr Utd 2–1 Raith RoversChampionship
- 11 October 2025Raith Rovers 0–2 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 9 August 2025Ayr Utd 0–1 Raith RoversChampionship
- 5 April 2025Raith Rovers 1–0 Ayr UtdChampionship
The two sides
Ayr Utd carry a model rating of 5.95 against 6.14 for Raith Rovers.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Ayr Utd and 1.46 for Raith Rovers.
Ayr Utd rate 0.40 in attack and 2.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Raith Rovers rate 0.50 and 2.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ayr Utd a 0.2% chance of the title and Raith Rovers 10.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raith Rovers the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ayr Utd against 1.46 for Raith Rovers. Ayr Utd's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.09 for Raith Rovers.
How the model reaches 38% for Raith Rovers to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Raith Rovers to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Ayr Utd's ratings add 4 points and Raith Rovers's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Ayr Utd's ratings33%+4
- Raith Rovers's ratings38%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Ayr Utd at home · Raith Rovers away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Ayr Utd 11, Raith Rovers 12.
Ayr Utd score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Raith Rovers have let in 1 there.
Raith Rovers score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Ayr Utd have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Ayr Utd
- at Inverness CT20 Nov · Championshipwin 19%
- at Stenhousemuir5 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
Raith Rovers
- vs Partick21 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- at Livingston4 Dec · Championshipwin 25%
- vs Morton12 Dec · Championshipwin 64%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.