League B - 5 · 14 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Austria vs Rep. Of Ireland UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Austria 0–1 Rep. Of Ireland

The model makes it 33% Austria, 29% draw, 38% Rep. Of Ireland — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Austria 1.24, Rep. Of Ireland 1.36.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Austria's rating is built from its last 4 matches; Rep. Of Ireland's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Austria are top on 8 points from 4 games; Rep. Of Ireland are 3rd on 5 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
  • Austria are unbeaten in their last 4 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Kosovo.
  • Rep. Of Ireland are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Israel.
  • Last 3 meetings: Rep. Of Ireland 1 win to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 October 2026, ended Rep. Of Ireland 2–2 Austria.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Austria vs Rep. Of Ireland

54%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Austria win Draw Rep. Of Ireland win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–19%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 1–29%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read Austria first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Rep. Of Ireland at 38%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Austria vs Rep. Of Ireland

Austria

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1away to Kosovo4 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Rep. Of Ireland1 October 2026
  • W3-1Kosovo27 September 2026
  • W3-1Israel24 September 2026

Rep. Of Ireland

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1Israel4 October 2026
  • D2-2Austria1 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Israel27 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Kosovo24 September 2026

What these results say

  • Austria went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Austria scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Austria conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Rep. Of Ireland failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Rep. Of Ireland scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Rep. Of Ireland conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Austria422095+48
3Rep. Of Ireland412164+25

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Austria vs Rep. Of Ireland

  • 1 October 2026Rep. Of Ireland 2–2 AustriaUEFA Nations League
  • 11 June 2017Rep. Of Ireland 1–1 AustriaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 12 November 2016Austria 0–1 Rep. Of IrelandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe

Leading scorers: Austria and Rep. Of Ireland

Austria

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Rep. Of Ireland

GoalsAssists

  • T. Parrott40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Rep. Of Ireland the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Austria against 1.36 for Rep. Of Ireland. Austria's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.76 for Rep. Of Ireland.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 38% for Rep. Of Ireland to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rep. Of Ireland to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Austria's ratings add 2 points and Rep. Of Ireland's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Austria's ratings36%+2
  4. Rep. Of Ireland's ratings38%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Austria

  • at Israel17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 46%

Rep. Of Ireland

  • vs Kosovo17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 50%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.