Serbia
vs
Germany
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Serbia 0–2 Germany
The model makes it 19% Serbia, 25% draw, 56% Germany — fair odds of 5.26, 4.00 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Serbia 0.93, Germany 1.96.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,707 settled matches.
One-sided: Germany are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 30 October 2026. Serbia's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Germany's from its last 3 matches.
Key facts
- Serbia are bottom on 0 points from 4 games; Germany are 3rd on 5 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
- Serbia have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Netherlands.
- Germany have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Greece.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 October 2026, ended Germany 2–0 Serbia.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Serbia vs Germany
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Germany at 56% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Serbia vs Germany
Serbia
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2away to Netherlands4 October 2026
- L0-2away to Germany1 October 2026
- L1-2Netherlands27 September 2026
- L1-2Greece24 September 2026
Germany
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0away to Greece4 October 2026
- W2-0Serbia1 October 2026
- L0-1Greece27 September 2026
- D1-1away to Netherlands24 September 2026
What these results say
- Serbia did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Serbia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Serbia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Germany had two goals or fewer.
- Germany failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Serbia vs Germany
- 1 October 2026Germany 2–0 SerbiaUEFA Nations League
- 20 March 2019Germany 1–1 SerbiaFriendlies
- 18 June 2010Germany 0–1 SerbiaWorld Cup
The two sides
Serbia carry a model rating of 6.79 against 7.2 for Germany.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.93 goals for Serbia and 1.96 for Germany.
Serbia rate 0.97 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Germany rate 1.44 and 0.71.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,484 correct results out of 5,156 settled predictions (48%), with 512 exact scorelines (10%).
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Germany the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Serbia against 1.96 for Germany. Serbia's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.44/0.71 for Germany.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 56% for Germany to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Germany to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Serbia's ratings add 11 points and Germany's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Serbia's ratings45%+11
- Germany's ratings56%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Serbia
- at Greece16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 23%
Germany
- vs Netherlands16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 48%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.