Nations League predictions & fixtures

Saturday 3 October — 8 matches

13:00 UTC Finland vs Albania — model 40% / 31% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.23 · 3.45.
16:00 UTC Croatia vs England — model 27% / 28% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.70 · 3.57 · 2.22.
16:00 UTC Iceland vs Bulgaria — model 37% / 30% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.33 · 3.03.
16:00 UTC Belarus vs San Marino — model 62% / 24% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.61 · 4.17 · 7.14.
16:00 UTC Estonia vs Luxembourg — model 31% / 32% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.13 · 2.70.
18:45 UTC Spain vs Czechia — model 67% / 20% / 13%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.49 · 5.00 · 7.69.
18:45 UTC Switzerland vs Slovenia — model 50% / 28% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.57 · 4.55.
18:45 UTC FYR Macedonia vs Scotland — model 25% / 31% / 44%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.00 · 3.23 · 2.27.

Sunday 4 October — 8 matches

13:00 UTC Azerbaijan vs Lithuania — model 38% / 32% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 3.13 · 3.33.
16:00 UTC Kosovo vs Austria — model 29% / 30% / 41%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.33 · 2.44.
16:00 UTC Malta vs Andorra — model 43% / 31% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.23 · 3.85.
18:45 UTC Portugal vs Norway — model 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 3.57 · 3.13.
18:45 UTC Wales vs Denmark — model 28% / 29% / 43%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.57 · 3.45 · 2.33.
18:45 UTC Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel — model 48% / 29% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.45 · 4.35.
18:45 UTC Greece vs Germany — model 30% / 30% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.33 · 3.33 · 2.50.
18:45 UTC Netherlands vs Serbia — model 48% / 27% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.08 · 3.70 · 4.00.

Monday 5 October — 8 matches

16:00 UTC Cyprus vs Latvia — model 42% / 32% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.13 · 3.85.
18:45 UTC France vs Belgium — model 40% / 30% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.33 · 3.33.
18:45 UTC Italy vs Türkiye — model 47% / 27% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 3.70 · 3.85.
18:45 UTC Northern Ireland vs Georgia — model 37% / 34% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 2.94 · 3.45.
18:45 UTC Ukraine vs Hungary — model 33% / 34% / 33%, most likely 0-0, fair odds 3.03 · 2.94 · 3.03. Tight game · draw in reach
18:45 UTC Romania vs Sweden — model 34% / 28% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.57 · 2.63.
18:45 UTC Montenegro vs Armenia — model 46% / 28% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 3.57 · 3.85.
18:45 UTC Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland — model 29% / 29% / 42%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.45 · 2.38.

Tuesday 6 October — 10 matches

14:00 UTC Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands — model 35% / 32% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.86 · 3.13 · 3.03. Tight game · draw in reach
18:45 UTC Croatia vs Spain — model 23% / 28% / 49%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.35 · 3.57 · 2.04.
18:45 UTC England vs Czechia — model 64% / 21% / 15%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.56 · 4.76 · 6.67.
18:45 UTC Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia — model 65% / 23% / 12%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.54 · 4.35 · 8.33.
18:45 UTC Albania vs San Marino — model 63% / 24% / 13%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.59 · 4.17 · 7.69.
18:45 UTC Belarus vs Finland — model 30% / 30% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.33 · 3.33 · 2.50.
18:45 UTC Estonia vs Iceland — model 29% / 31% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.23 · 2.50.
18:45 UTC Luxembourg vs Bulgaria — model 35% / 30% / 35%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.86 · 3.33 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
18:45 UTC Scotland vs Slovenia — model 33% / 30% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.33 · 2.70.
18:45 UTC Moldova vs Slovakia — model 20% / 27% / 53%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 5.00 · 3.70 · 1.89.

Last round: the model's hits and misses

29 September to 2 October: the model called the result of 9 of 20 matches, 2 of them to the exact score.

Scotland 0–3 Switzerland — the model said 22% / 26% / 52%, most likely 0-2: result correct.
Slovenia 2–0 FYR Macedonia — the model said 48% / 29% / 23%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Azerbaijan 0–0 Liechtenstein — the model said 56% / 26% / 18%, most likely 2-0: result missed.
Germany 2–0 Serbia — the model said 59% / 24% / 17%, most likely 2-0: exact scoreline.
Greece 2–2 Netherlands — the model said 31% / 29% / 40%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Denmark 2–4 Portugal — the model said 32% / 28% / 40%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
Wales 2–1 Norway — the model said 32% / 27% / 41%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Rep. Of Ireland 2–2 Austria — the model said 41% / 30% / 29%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Israel 0–0 Kosovo — the model said 30% / 29% / 41%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Malta 1–1 Gibraltar — the model said 35% / 29% / 36%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Kazakhstan 1–2 Moldova — the model said 47% / 29% / 24%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Cyprus 2–0 Armenia — the model said 43% / 29% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Latvia 1–2 Montenegro — the model said 23% / 29% / 48%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
France 1–1 Italy — the model said 42% / 30% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Belgium 3–0 Türkiye — the model said 49% / 26% / 25%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Hungary 1–0 Georgia — the model said 45% / 29% / 26%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
Ukraine 0–3 Northern Ireland — the model said 42% / 31% / 27%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Poland 6–0 Romania — the model said 37% / 28% / 35%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–1 Sweden — the model said 35% / 31% / 34%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Faroe Islands 1–1 Slovakia — the model said 31% / 29% / 40%, most likely 1-2: result missed.