League C - 5 · 13 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Moldova vs Kazakhstan UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Moldova 0–1 Kazakhstan

The model makes it 32% Moldova, 29% draw, 39% Kazakhstan — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Moldova 1.18, Kazakhstan 1.34.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,076 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 30 October 2026. Moldova's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Kazakhstan's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Moldova are 3rd on 4 points from 4 games; Kazakhstan are bottom on 2 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
  • Moldova have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Slovakia.
  • Kazakhstan have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Faroe Islands.
  • Last 4 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 October 2026, ended Kazakhstan 1–2 Moldova.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Moldova vs Kazakhstan

52%
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Moldova win Draw Kazakhstan win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–110%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 0–09%
  5. 1–29%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read Moldova first; the other scorelines share the remaining 36%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kazakhstan at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Moldova vs Kazakhstan

Moldova

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-4Slovakia6 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Kazakhstan2 October 2026
  • D1-1Faroe Islands29 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Slovakia26 September 2026

Kazakhstan

UEFA Nations League

  • D2-2Faroe Islands6 October 2026
  • L1-2Moldova2 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Slovakia29 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Faroe Islands26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Moldova conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Moldova failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Kazakhstan did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Kazakhstan scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Kazakhstan conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Moldova411238-54
4Kazakhstan402257-22

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Moldova vs Kazakhstan

  • 2 October 2026Kazakhstan 1–2 MoldovaUEFA Nations League
  • 29 March 2022Kazakhstan 0–1 MoldovaUEFA Nations League
  • 24 March 2022Moldova 1–2 KazakhstanUEFA Nations League
  • 21 February 2019Kazakhstan 1–0 MoldovaFriendlies

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Moldova carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.55 for Kazakhstan.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Moldova and 1.34 for Kazakhstan.

Moldova rate 0.69 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kazakhstan rate 0.70 and 1.27.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,484 correct results out of 5,156 settled predictions (48%), with 512 exact scorelines (10%).

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Kazakhstan the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Moldova against 1.34 for Kazakhstan. Moldova's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.27 for Kazakhstan.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 39% for Kazakhstan to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kazakhstan to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Moldova's ratings add 2 points and Kazakhstan's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Moldova's ratings36%+2
  4. Kazakhstan's ratings39%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Moldova

  • at Faroe Islands16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 28%

Kazakhstan

  • vs Slovakia16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 20%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.