England
vs
Croatia
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: England 2–1 Croatia
The model makes it 54% England, 24% draw, 22% Croatia — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: England 1.99, Croatia 1.09.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to England: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. England's rating is built from its last 6 matches; Croatia's from its last 4 matches.
Key facts
- England are 2nd on 9 points from 4 games; Croatia are 3rd on 3 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
- England are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Czechia.
- Croatia are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Spain.
- Last 6 meetings: England 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 October 2026, ended Croatia 0–7 England.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: England vs Croatia
Has the model earned this number?
England at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into England vs Croatia
England
UEFA Nations League
- W3-0Czechia6 October 2026
- W7-0away to Croatia3 October 2026
- W2-0away to Czechia29 September 2026
- L2-3Spain26 September 2026
Croatia
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2Spain6 October 2026
- L0-7England3 October 2026
- L1-4away to Spain29 September 2026
- W2-1away to Czechia26 September 2026
What these results say
- England scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- England won 3 of these 4 matches.
- England kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Croatia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Croatia had three goals or more.
- Croatia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 9 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Croatia vs England
Croatia and England have met 6 times in the records we hold, England has won 4 of them to Croatia's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
England won the last one 7–0 on 3 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 15 |
| England | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 5 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 3.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 3 Oct 2026
UEFA Nations LeagueCroatia 0–7 England - 17 Jun 2026
World CupEngland 4–2 Croatia - 13 Jun 2021
Euro ChampionshipEngland 1–0 Croatia - 18 Nov 2018
UEFA Nations LeagueEngland 2–1 Croatia - 12 Oct 2018
UEFA Nations LeagueCroatia 0–0 England - 11 Jul 2018
World CupCroatia 2–1 England
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, England's attack rates 45% above Croatia's, and England concede 14% fewer than Croatia. That gives England the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: England and Croatia
England
GoalsAssists
- H. Kane61
- A. Gordon31
Croatia
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives England the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for England against 1.09 for Croatia. England's attack/defence rating is 1.75/0.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/0.84 for Croatia.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 54% for England to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for England to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, England's ratings add 8 points and Croatia's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level39%+1
- England's ratings47%+8
- Croatia's ratings54%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.