Bulgaria
vs
Iceland
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Bulgaria 0–1 Iceland
The model makes it 23% Bulgaria, 30% draw, 47% Iceland — fair odds of 4.35, 3.33 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Bulgaria 0.81, Iceland 1.37.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,373 settled matches.
One-sided: Iceland are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 30 October 2026. Bulgaria's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Iceland's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Bulgaria are 3rd on 4 points from 4 games; Iceland are top on 8 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
- Bulgaria have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Luxembourg.
- Iceland are unbeaten in their last 4 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Estonia.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bulgaria vs Iceland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Iceland at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bulgaria vs Iceland
Bulgaria
UEFA Nations League
- W2-0away to Luxembourg6 October 2026
- L0-3away to Iceland3 October 2026
- D0-0Estonia29 September 2026
- L1-2Luxembourg26 September 2026
Iceland
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0away to Estonia6 October 2026
- W3-0Bulgaria3 October 2026
- W3-0away to Luxembourg29 September 2026
- D1-1Estonia26 September 2026
What these results say
- Bulgaria failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Iceland went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Iceland scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Iceland kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bulgaria vs Iceland
- 3 October 2026Iceland 3–0 BulgariaUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Bulgaria and Iceland
Bulgaria
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Iceland
GoalsAssists
- O. Óskarsson32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Bulgaria carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.86 for Iceland.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.81 goals for Bulgaria and 1.37 for Iceland.
Bulgaria rate 0.66 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Iceland rate 0.93 and 0.91.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,484 correct results out of 5,156 settled predictions (48%), with 512 exact scorelines (10%).
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Iceland the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Bulgaria against 1.37 for Iceland. Bulgaria's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/0.91 for Iceland.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 47% for Iceland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Iceland to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Bulgaria's ratings add 7 points and Iceland's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level32%−2
- Bulgaria's ratings39%+7
- Iceland's ratings47%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Bulgaria
- at Estonia16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 30%
Iceland
- vs Luxembourg16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.