Czechia
vs
Spain
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Czechia 0–2 Spain
The model makes it 10% Czechia, 18% draw, 72% Spain — fair odds of 10.00, 5.56 and 1.39. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Czechia 0.73, Spain 2.68.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,688 settled matches.
One-sided: Spain are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 29 October 2026. Czechia's rating is built from its last 3 matches; Spain's from its last 6 matches.
Key facts
- Czechia are bottom on 0 points from 4 games; Spain are top on 12 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
- Czechia have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to England.
- Spain are unbeaten in their last 4 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Croatia.
- Last 4 meetings: Spain 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 October 2026, ended Spain 3–1 Czechia.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Czechia vs Spain
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spain at 72% here. Across 5,105 settled matches (as of 29 October 2026), 406 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.4%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Czechia vs Spain
Czechia
UEFA Nations League
- L0-3away to England6 October 2026
- L1-3away to Spain3 October 2026
- L0-2England29 September 2026
- L1-2Croatia26 September 2026
Spain
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1away to Croatia6 October 2026
- W3-1Czechia3 October 2026
- W4-1Croatia29 September 2026
- W3-2away to England26 September 2026
What these results say
- Czechia did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Czechia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Czechia had three goals or more.
- Spain won every one of these 4 matches.
- Spain scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Spain conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Czechia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 0 |
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Czechia vs Spain
- 3 October 2026Spain 3–1 CzechiaUEFA Nations League
- 12 June 2022Spain 2–0 CzechiaUEFA Nations League
- 5 June 2022Czechia 2–2 SpainUEFA Nations League
- 13 June 2016Spain 1–0 CzechiaEuro Championship
Leading scorers: Czechia and Spain
Czechia
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Spain
GoalsAssists
- Lamine Yamal41
- Mikel Merino31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Czechia carry a model rating of 6.74 against 7.42 for Spain. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.73 goals for Czechia and 2.68 for Spain. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Czechia rate 0.98 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spain rate 1.73 and 0.55.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,464 correct results out of 5,119 settled predictions (48%), with 510 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spain the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Czechia against 2.68 for Spain. Czechia's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.73/0.55 for Spain.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 72% for Spain to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Spain to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Czechia's ratings add 20 points and Spain's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 72%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Czechia's ratings54%+20
- Spain's ratings72%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Next match, by difficulty
Czechia
- at Croatia15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 20%
Spain
- vs England15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.