Slovenia
vs
Switzerland
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Slovenia 0–1 Switzerland
The model makes it 22% Slovenia, 27% draw, 51% Switzerland — fair odds of 4.55, 3.70 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Slovenia 0.95, Switzerland 1.69.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,707 settled matches.
One-sided: Switzerland are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 30 October 2026. Slovenia's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Switzerland's from its last 4 matches.
Key facts
- Slovenia are 2nd on 7 points from 4 games; Switzerland are top on 12 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
- Slovenia have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Scotland.
- Switzerland are unbeaten in their last 4 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to North Macedonia.
- Last 3 meetings: Switzerland 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 October 2026, ended Switzerland 2–1 Slovenia.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Slovenia vs Switzerland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Switzerland at 51% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Slovenia vs Switzerland
Slovenia
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1away to Scotland6 October 2026
- L1-2away to Switzerland3 October 2026
- W2-0North Macedonia29 September 2026
- D0-0Scotland26 September 2026
Switzerland
UEFA Nations League
- W3-0North Macedonia6 October 2026
- W2-1Slovenia3 October 2026
- W3-0away to Scotland29 September 2026
- W3-0away to North Macedonia26 September 2026
What these results say
- Slovenia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Switzerland won every one of these 4 matches.
- Switzerland scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Switzerland had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Slovenia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Slovenia vs Switzerland
- 3 October 2026Switzerland 2–1 SloveniaUEFA Nations League
- 13 October 2025Slovenia 0–0 SwitzerlandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 8 September 2025Switzerland 3–0 SloveniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
Leading scorers: Slovenia and Switzerland
Slovenia
GoalsAssists
- A. Matko22
Switzerland
GoalsAssists
- Z. Amdouni31
- D. Ndoye23
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Slovenia carry a model rating of 6.94 against 7.26 for Switzerland.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.95 goals for Slovenia and 1.69 for Switzerland.
Slovenia rate 1.03 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Switzerland rate 1.55 and 0.68.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,484 correct results out of 5,156 settled predictions (48%), with 512 exact scorelines (10%).
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Switzerland the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Slovenia against 1.69 for Switzerland. Slovenia's attack/defence rating is 1.03/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.55/0.68 for Switzerland.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 51% for Switzerland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Switzerland to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Slovenia's ratings add 8 points and Switzerland's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Slovenia's ratings42%+8
- Switzerland's ratings51%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Slovenia
- at North Macedonia16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 50%
Switzerland
- vs Scotland16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 63%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.