Millonarios
vs
Alianza Valledupar
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Millonarios 2–0 Alianza Valledupar
The model makes it 62% Millonarios, 23% draw, 15% Alianza Valledupar — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Millonarios 2.01, Alianza Valledupar 0.71.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,688 settled matches.
One-sided: Millonarios are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 29 October 2026. Millonarios's rating is built from 81 Colombian Primera A matches and Alianza Valledupar's from 75, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,243 matches.
Key facts
- Millonarios are 5th on 26 points from 16 games; Alianza Valledupar are 13th on 18 points from 16 games — Primera A.
- Millonarios are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Once Caldas.
- Alianza Valledupar have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Once Caldas.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Alianza Valledupar 2–2 Millonarios.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Millonarios at 62% here. Across 5,105 settled matches (as of 29 October 2026), 1,276 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar
Millonarios
Primera A
- D1-1Once Caldas21 October 2026
- W4-1Jaguares17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fortaleza FC9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Independiente Medellin30 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Nacional25 September 2026
Alianza Valledupar
Primera A
- L0-1away to Once Caldas28 October 2026
- W1-0Internacional de Bogota25 October 2026
- W1-0away to Deportivo Pasto20 October 2026
- D2-2Águilas Doradas9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Deportivo Cali3 October 2026
What these results say
- Millonarios went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Millonarios scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Millonarios conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Valledupar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 26 |
| 13 | Alianza Valledupar | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar
- 3 May 2026Alianza Valledupar 2–2 MillonariosPrimera A
- 13 September 2025Alianza Valledupar 3–0 MillonariosPrimera A
- 30 March 2025Millonarios 2–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 28 July 2024Alianza Valledupar 2–1 MillonariosPrimera A
- 31 January 2024Millonarios 1–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 6 October 2023Alianza Valledupar 1–2 MillonariosCopa Colombia
Leading scorers: Millonarios and Alianza Valledupar
Millonarios
GoalsAssists
- A. Estupiñán194
- L. Castro126
- R. Contreras101
Alianza Valledupar
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Millonarios carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.29 for Alianza Valledupar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Millonarios and 0.71 for Alianza Valledupar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Millonarios rate 0.81 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alianza Valledupar rate 0.56 and 1.71.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,464 correct results out of 5,119 settled predictions (48%), with 510 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Millonarios the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Millonarios against 0.71 for Alianza Valledupar. Millonarios's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.71 for Alianza Valledupar.
How the model reaches 62% for Millonarios to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Millonarios to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Millonarios's ratings add 9 points and Alianza Valledupar's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 62%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Millonarios's ratings53%+9
- Alianza Valledupar's ratings62%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Millonarios at home · Alianza Valledupar away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Millonarios 35, Alianza Valledupar 34.
Millonarios score most often in the 46–60 minute window (14 goals); Alianza Valledupar have let in 6 there.
Alianza Valledupar score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Millonarios have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.