Albania
vs
Finland
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Albania 0–1 Finland
The model makes it 33% Albania, 30% draw, 37% Finland — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Albania 1.10, Finland 1.19.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,071 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 29 October 2026. Albania's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Finland's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Albania are top on 9 points from 4 games; Finland are 3rd on 7 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
- Albania have won 3 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to San Marino.
- Finland have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Belarus.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Albania vs Finland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Finland at 37% here. Across 5,105 settled matches (as of 29 October 2026), 3,897 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Albania vs Finland
Albania
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1San Marino6 October 2026
- L1-2away to Finland3 October 2026
- W3-0away to San Marino29 September 2026
- W2-0Belarus26 September 2026
Finland
UEFA Nations League
- L0-1away to Belarus6 October 2026
- W2-1Albania3 October 2026
- D0-0Belarus29 September 2026
- W7-0away to San Marino26 September 2026
What these results say
- Albania scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Albania won 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Albania had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albania | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Albania vs Finland
- 3 October 2026Finland 2–1 AlbaniaUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Albania and Finland
Albania
GoalsAssists
- K. Asllani31
Finland
GoalsAssists
- L. Walta41
- J. Pohjanpalo30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Albania carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.89 for Finland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Albania and 1.19 for Finland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Albania rate 0.83 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Finland rate 1.07 and 0.98.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,464 correct results out of 5,119 settled predictions (48%), with 510 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Finland the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Albania against 1.19 for Finland. Albania's attack/defence rating is 0.83/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/0.98 for Finland.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 37% for Finland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Finland to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Albania's ratings add 1 point and Finland's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level33%−1
- Albania's ratings34%+1
- Finland's ratings37%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Next match, by difficulty
Albania
- at Belarus15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 33%
Finland
- vs San Marino15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 81%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.