Luxembourg
vs
Estonia
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Luxembourg 1–0 Estonia
The model makes it 38% Luxembourg, 34% draw, 28% Estonia — fair odds of 2.63, 2.94 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Luxembourg 1.00, Estonia 0.77.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 26%, under 2.5: 74%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,076 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 30 October 2026. Luxembourg's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Estonia's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Luxembourg are bottom on 3 points from 4 games; Estonia are 2nd on 6 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
- Luxembourg are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Bulgaria.
- Estonia are unbeaten in their last 4 games (1 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Iceland.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Luxembourg vs Estonia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Luxembourg at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Luxembourg vs Estonia
Luxembourg
UEFA Nations League
- L0-2Bulgaria6 October 2026
- L0-1away to Estonia3 October 2026
- L0-3Iceland29 September 2026
- W2-1away to Bulgaria26 September 2026
Estonia
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0Iceland6 October 2026
- W1-0Luxembourg3 October 2026
- D0-0away to Bulgaria29 September 2026
- D1-1away to Iceland26 September 2026
What these results say
- Luxembourg conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Luxembourg failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Luxembourg failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Estonia went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Estonia had two goals or fewer.
- Estonia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Luxembourg vs Estonia
- 3 October 2026Estonia 1–0 LuxembourgUEFA Nations League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Luxembourg carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.62 for Estonia.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Luxembourg and 0.77 for Estonia.
Luxembourg rate 0.74 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Estonia rate 0.59 and 1.00.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,484 correct results out of 5,156 settled predictions (48%), with 512 exact scorelines (10%).
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Luxembourg the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Luxembourg against 0.77 for Estonia. Luxembourg's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1 for Estonia.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 38% for Luxembourg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Luxembourg to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Luxembourg's ratings add 3 points and Estonia's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level34%−4
- Luxembourg's ratings37%+3
- Estonia's ratings38%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Luxembourg
- at Iceland16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 25%
Estonia
- vs Bulgaria16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.