The model rates their attack at 1.44× the league average and their defence at 0.71× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better — the model rates them above average at both ends. Next they travel to Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League on 24 September 2026, a match the model gives them 41%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Next match: Germany vs Netherlands
Germany travel to Netherlands on 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. The model makes it 41% Germany, 28% draw and 31% Netherlands, with a most likely scoreline of 1-2. It projects 1.69 expected goals for Germany against 1.32. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Full preview and model analysis for Germany vs Netherlands