Deportivo Pereira
vs
America de Cali
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Pereira 0–1 America de Cali
The model makes it 23% Deportivo Pereira, 30% draw, 47% America de Cali — fair odds of 4.35, 3.33 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Deportivo Pereira 0.80, America de Cali 1.36.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,360 settled matches.
One-sided: America de Cali are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 29 October 2026. Deportivo Pereira's rating is built from 74 Colombian Primera A matches and America de Cali's from 88, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,243 matches.
Key facts
- Deportivo Pereira are 17th on 14 points from 15 games; America de Cali are 2nd on 31 points from 15 games — Primera A.
- Deportivo Pereira are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Once Caldas.
- America de Cali have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Cucuta.
- Last 6 meetings: America de Cali 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 September 2026, ended America de Cali 4–1 Deportivo Pereira.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts America de Cali at 47% here. Across 5,105 settled matches (as of 29 October 2026), 2,359 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali
Deportivo Pereira
Primera A
- D1-1away to Once Caldas25 October 2026
- W2-0Chico20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Junior14 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Cali10 October 2026
- L0-4away to Cucuta4 October 2026
America de Cali
Primera A
- W3-1Cucuta24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bucaramanga18 October 2026
- L1-2Independiente Medellin12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Llaneros5 October 2026
- W1-0Águilas Doradas24 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Pereira failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo Pereira had two goals or fewer.
- America de Cali scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- America de Cali conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for America de Cali.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 14 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 11 | +18 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali
- 9 September 2026America de Cali 4–1 Deportivo PereiraCopa Colombia
- 3 May 2026America de Cali 1–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 14 August 2025Deportivo Pereira 2–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 2 March 2025America de Cali 2–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 15 September 2024America de Cali 1–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 2 March 2024Deportivo Pereira 2–0 America de CaliPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Pereira and America de Cali
Deportivo Pereira
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
America de Cali
GoalsAssists
- Y. Guzmán196
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Deportivo Pereira carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.68 for America de Cali. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.80 goals for Deportivo Pereira and 1.36 for America de Cali. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Pereira rate 0.49 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; America de Cali rate 0.81 and 1.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Deportivo Pereira a 0% chance of the title and America de Cali 28%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,464 correct results out of 5,119 settled predictions (48%), with 510 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives America de Cali the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Deportivo Pereira against 1.36 for America de Cali. Deportivo Pereira's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.13 for America de Cali.
How the model reaches 47% for America de Cali to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for America de Cali to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Deportivo Pereira's ratings add 9 points and America de Cali's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage27%−8
- Deportivo Pereira's ratings36%+9
- America de Cali's ratings47%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Pereira at home · America de Cali away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Deportivo Pereira 33, America de Cali 36.
Deportivo Pereira score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); America de Cali have let in 6 there.
America de Cali score most often in the 16–30 minute window (13 goals); Deportivo Pereira have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.