Türkiye
vs
Belgium
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Türkiye 1–2 Belgium
The model makes it 26% Türkiye, 25% draw, 49% Belgium — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Türkiye 1.24, Belgium 1.93.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,360 settled matches.
Edge to Belgium: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 29 October 2026. Türkiye's rating is built from its last 3 matches; Belgium's from its last 5 matches.
Key facts
- Türkiye are bottom on 0 points from 4 games; Belgium are 3rd on 6 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
- Türkiye have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Italy.
- Belgium have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to France.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Türkiye vs Belgium
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Belgium at 49% here. Across 5,105 settled matches (as of 29 October 2026), 2,359 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Türkiye vs Belgium
Türkiye
UEFA Nations League
- L1-3away to Italy5 October 2026
- L0-3away to Belgium2 October 2026
- L1-4Italy28 September 2026
- L0-1France25 September 2026
Belgium
UEFA Nations League
- L1-4away to France5 October 2026
- W3-0Türkiye2 October 2026
- L0-1France28 September 2026
- W2-0away to Italy25 September 2026
What these results say
- Türkiye did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Türkiye conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Türkiye had three goals or more.
- Belgium scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Türkiye vs Belgium
- 2 October 2026Belgium 3–0 TürkiyeUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Türkiye and Belgium
Türkiye
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Belgium
GoalsAssists
- D. Lukebakio21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Türkiye carry a model rating of 7.07 against 7.3 for Belgium. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Türkiye and 1.93 for Belgium. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Türkiye rate 1.51 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Belgium rate 1.50 and 0.61.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,464 correct results out of 5,119 settled predictions (48%), with 510 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Belgium the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Türkiye against 1.93 for Belgium. Türkiye's attack/defence rating is 1.51/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.5/0.61 for Belgium.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 49% for Belgium to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Belgium to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Türkiye's ratings add 8 points and Belgium's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level35%+1
- Türkiye's ratings43%+8
- Belgium's ratings49%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Next match, by difficulty
Türkiye
- at France15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 18%
Belgium
- vs Italy15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.