Slovakia
vs
Faroe Islands
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Slovakia 1–0 Faroe Islands
The model makes it 54% Slovakia, 28% draw, 18% Faroe Islands — fair odds of 1.85, 3.57 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Slovakia 1.60, Faroe Islands 0.70.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,707 settled matches.
One-sided: Slovakia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 30 October 2026. Slovakia's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Faroe Islands's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Slovakia are top on 10 points from 4 games; Faroe Islands are 2nd on 4 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
- Slovakia are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 4-0 win away to Moldova.
- Faroe Islands are unbeaten in their last 4 games (0 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Kazakhstan.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Slovakia vs Faroe Islands
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slovakia at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Slovakia vs Faroe Islands
Slovakia
UEFA Nations League
- W4-0away to Moldova6 October 2026
- D1-1away to Faroe Islands2 October 2026
- W2-1Kazakhstan29 September 2026
- W2-0Moldova26 September 2026
Faroe Islands
UEFA Nations League
- D2-2away to Kazakhstan6 October 2026
- D1-1Slovakia2 October 2026
- D1-1away to Moldova29 September 2026
- D1-1Kazakhstan26 September 2026
What these results say
- Slovakia went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Slovakia scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Slovakia won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Faroe Islands went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Faroe Islands did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Faroe Islands scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slovakia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 10 |
| 2 | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Slovakia vs Faroe Islands
- 2 October 2026Faroe Islands 1–1 SlovakiaUEFA Nations League
The two sides
Slovakia carry a model rating of 6.95 against 6.59 for Faroe Islands.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Slovakia and 0.70 for Faroe Islands.
Slovakia rate 1.05 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Faroe Islands rate 0.65 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,484 correct results out of 5,156 settled predictions (48%), with 512 exact scorelines (10%).
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slovakia the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Slovakia against 0.70 for Faroe Islands. Slovakia's attack/defence rating is 1.05/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.13 for Faroe Islands.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 54% for Slovakia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Slovakia to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Slovakia's ratings add 10 points and Faroe Islands's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level36%−2
- Slovakia's ratings46%+10
- Faroe Islands's ratings54%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Slovakia
- at Kazakhstan16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 53%
Faroe Islands
- vs Moldova16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 42%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.