League A - 5 · 13 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Netherlands vs Greece UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Netherlands 1–0 Greece

The model makes it 39% Netherlands, 28% draw, 33% Greece — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Netherlands 1.44, Greece 1.28.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,076 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 30 October 2026. Netherlands's rating is built from its last 3 matches; Greece's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Netherlands are top on 8 points from 4 games; Greece are 2nd on 8 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
  • Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 4 games (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Serbia.
  • Greece are unbeaten in their last 4 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Germany.
  • Last 3 meetings: Netherlands 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 October 2026, ended Greece 2–2 Netherlands.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Netherlands vs Greece

56%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Netherlands win Draw Greece win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–09%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 0–18%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 2–07%

Scores read Netherlands first; the other scorelines share the remaining 39%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Netherlands at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Netherlands vs Greece

Netherlands

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-1Serbia4 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Greece1 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Serbia27 September 2026
  • D1-1Germany24 September 2026

Greece

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0Germany4 October 2026
  • D2-2Netherlands1 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Germany27 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Serbia24 September 2026

What these results say

  • Netherlands went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Netherlands scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Netherlands conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Greece went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Greece scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Netherlands422075+28
2Greece422053+28

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Netherlands vs Greece

  • 1 October 2026Greece 2–2 NetherlandsUEFA Nations League
  • 16 October 2023Greece 0–1 NetherlandsEuro Championship - Qualification
  • 7 September 2023Netherlands 3–0 GreeceEuro Championship - Qualification

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Netherlands carry a model rating of 7.05 against 7.03 for Greece.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Netherlands and 1.28 for Greece.

Netherlands rate 1.38 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Greece rate 1.09 and 0.77.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,484 correct results out of 5,156 settled predictions (48%), with 512 exact scorelines (10%).

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Netherlands the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Netherlands against 1.28 for Greece. Netherlands's attack/defence rating is 1.38/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.77 for Greece.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 39% for Netherlands to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Netherlands to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Netherlands's ratings add 1 point and Greece's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage38%+2
  3. Netherlands's ratings39%+1
  4. Greece's ratings39%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Netherlands

  • at Germany16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 26%

Greece

  • vs Serbia16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 49%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.