Romania
vs
Poland
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Romania 1–2 Poland
The model makes it 24% Romania, 24% draw, 52% Poland — fair odds of 4.17, 4.17 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Romania 1.21, Poland 2.03.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
Edge to Poland: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Romania's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Poland's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Romania are bottom on 0 points from 4 games; Poland are 3rd on 4 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
- Romania have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sweden.
- Poland have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Bosnia & Herzegovina.
- Last 3 meetings: Poland 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 October 2026, ended Poland 6–0 Romania.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Romania vs Poland
Has the model earned this number?
Poland at 52%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Romania vs Poland
Romania
UEFA Nations League
- L0-1Sweden5 October 2026
- L0-6away to Poland2 October 2026
- L2-4Bosnia & Herzegovina28 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sweden25 September 2026
Poland
UEFA Nations League
- L0-1away to Bosnia & Herzegovina5 October 2026
- W6-0Romania2 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sweden28 September 2026
- D0-0Bosnia & Herzegovina25 September 2026
What these results say
- Romania did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Romania conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Romania had three goals or more.
- Poland failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
| 3 | Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Romania vs Poland
- 2 October 2026Poland 6–0 RomaniaUEFA Nations League
- 10 June 2017Poland 3–1 RomaniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 11 November 2016Romania 0–3 PolandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
Leading scorers: Romania and Poland
Romania
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Poland
GoalsAssists
- R. Lewandowski30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Poland the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Romania against 2.03 for Poland. Romania's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.29/0.94 for Poland.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 52% for Poland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Poland to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Romania's ratings add 8 points and Poland's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level35%+1
- Romania's ratings43%+8
- Poland's ratings52%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Romania
- at Bosnia & Herzegovina17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 29%
Poland
- vs Sweden17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 50%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.