League B - 5 · 14 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Northern Ireland vs Ukraine UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Northern Ireland 0–1 Ukraine

The model makes it 33% Northern Ireland, 33% draw, 34% Ukraine — fair odds of 3.03, 3.03 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Northern Ireland 0.92, Ukraine 0.96.

Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.

A tight game: Northern Ireland and Ukraine are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Northern Ireland's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Ukraine's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Northern Ireland are top on 8 points from 4 games; Ukraine are 3rd on 4 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
  • Northern Ireland are unbeaten in their last 4 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Georgia.
  • Ukraine are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Hungary.
  • Last 3 meetings: Northern Ireland 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 October 2026, ended Ukraine 0–3 Northern Ireland.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Northern Ireland vs Ukraine

38%
Both teams to score
29%
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Northern Ireland win Draw Ukraine win
  1. 0–016%
  2. 1–114%
  3. 0–114%
  4. 1–013%
  5. 0–27%
  6. 1–26%
  7. 2–06%

Scores read Northern Ireland first; the other scorelines share the remaining 23%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Ukraine at 34%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Northern Ireland vs Ukraine

Northern Ireland

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0Georgia5 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Ukraine2 October 2026
  • D0-0Hungary28 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Georgia25 September 2026

Ukraine

UEFA Nations League

  • L1-2Hungary5 October 2026
  • L0-3Northern Ireland2 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Georgia28 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Hungary25 September 2026

What these results say

  • Northern Ireland went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Northern Ireland kept a clean sheet in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Northern Ireland had two goals or fewer.
  • Ukraine failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Northern Ireland422040+48
3Ukraine411225-34

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Northern Ireland vs Ukraine

  • 2 October 2026Ukraine 0–3 Northern IrelandUEFA Nations League
  • 3 June 2021Ukraine 1–0 Northern IrelandFriendlies
  • 16 June 2016Ukraine 0–2 Northern IrelandEuro Championship
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ukraine the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Northern Ireland against 0.96 for Ukraine. Northern Ireland's attack/defence rating is 0.95/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/0.72 for Ukraine.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 34% for Ukraine to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Ukraine to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Northern Ireland's ratings add 1 point and Ukraine's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 34%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Both sides at this match's level32%−2
  4. Northern Ireland's ratings33%+1
  5. Ukraine's ratings34%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Northern Ireland

  • at Hungary17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 28%

Ukraine

  • vs Georgia17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 40%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.