Alianza Atletico
vs
FBC Melgar
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Alianza Atletico 1–2 FBC Melgar
The model makes it 36% Alianza Atletico, 26% draw, 38% FBC Melgar — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Alianza Atletico 1.57, FBC Melgar 1.61.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
A tight game: Alianza Atletico and FBC Melgar are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Alianza Atletico's rating is built from 67 Primera División (Peru) matches and FBC Melgar's from 66, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Alianza Atletico are 8th on 46 points from 31 games; FBC Melgar are 3rd on 54 points from 31 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Alianza Atletico have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Deportivo Garcilaso.
- FBC Melgar are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Comerciantes Unidos.
- Last 6 meetings: FBC Melgar 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended FBC Melgar 3–1 Alianza Atletico.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar
Has the model earned this number?
FBC Melgar at 38%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
Primera División
- W3-2Deportivo Garcilaso28 October 2026
- L1-4away to Sport Huancayo24 October 2026
- L1-4Universitario18 October 2026
- W3-1away to Sport Boys11 October 2026
- W2-1Comerciantes Unidos18 September 2026
FBC Melgar
Primera División
- D1-1Comerciantes Unidos30 October 2026
- W2-1away to UTC Cajamarca23 October 2026
- W4-2Deportivo Garcilaso17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Universitario11 October 2026
- D1-1Sport Boys20 September 2026
What these results say
- Alianza Atletico scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Atletico conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Alianza Atletico had three goals or more.
- FBC Melgar went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FBC Melgar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FBC Melgar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 48 | 46 | +2 | 46 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 54 | 35 | +19 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar
- 31 May 2026FBC Melgar 3–1 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
- 1 August 2025Alianza Atletico 0–0 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 24 February 2025FBC Melgar 2–1 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
- 25 July 2024Alianza Atletico 3–1 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 10 February 2024FBC Melgar 1–0 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
- 15 September 2023FBC Melgar 4–0 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Alianza Atletico and FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
GoalsAssists
- C. Penilla95
FBC Melgar
GoalsAssists
- B. Cuesta156
- J. Vidales141
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FBC Melgar the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Alianza Atletico against 1.61 for FBC Melgar. Alianza Atletico's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.38 for FBC Melgar.
How the model reaches 38% for FBC Melgar to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FBC Melgar to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Alianza Atletico's ratings add 4 points and FBC Melgar's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Alianza Atletico's ratings33%+4
- FBC Melgar's ratings38%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Alianza Atletico at home · FBC Melgar away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Alianza Atletico 31, FBC Melgar 31.
FBC Melgar score most often in the 31–45 minute window (15 goals); Alianza Atletico have let in 9 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.