League B - 5 · 14 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Sweden 1–0 Bosnia & Herzegovina

The model makes it 38% Sweden, 30% draw, 32% Bosnia & Herzegovina — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Sweden 1.26, Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.13.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Sweden's rating is built from its last 4 matches; Bosnia & Herzegovina's from its last 4 matches.

Key facts

  • Sweden are top on 10 points from 4 games; Bosnia & Herzegovina are 2nd on 8 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
  • Sweden are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Romania.
  • Bosnia & Herzegovina are unbeaten in their last 4 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Poland.

More Nations League predictions

All Nations League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

49%
Both teams to score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Sweden win Draw Bosnia & Herzegovina win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 0–110%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 1–27%
  7. 2–07%

Scores read Sweden first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Sweden at 38%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

Sweden

UEFA Nations League

  • W1-0away to Romania5 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Bosnia & Herzegovina2 October 2026
  • W3-1Poland28 September 2026
  • W2-1Romania25 September 2026

Bosnia & Herzegovina

UEFA Nations League

  • W1-0Poland5 October 2026
  • D1-1Sweden2 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Romania28 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Poland25 September 2026

What these results say

  • Sweden went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Sweden scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sweden won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Bosnia & Herzegovina went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Bosnia & Herzegovina scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Bosnia & Herzegovina had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Sweden431073+410
2Bosnia & Herzegovina422063+38

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

  • 2 October 2026Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–1 SwedenUEFA Nations League

Leading scorers: Sweden and Bosnia & Herzegovina

Sweden

GoalsAssists

  • V. Gyökeres40

Bosnia & Herzegovina

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sweden the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Sweden against 1.13 for Bosnia & Herzegovina. Sweden's attack/defence rating is 1/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/0.93 for Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 38% for Sweden to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sweden to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sweden's ratings add 1 point and Bosnia & Herzegovina's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage38%+2
  3. Both sides at this match's level37%−1
  4. Sweden's ratings38%+1
  5. Bosnia & Herzegovina's ratings38%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Sweden

  • at Poland17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 25%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

  • vs Romania17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 42%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.