Norway
vs
Wales
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Norway 1–0 Wales
The model makes it 51% Norway, 26% draw, 23% Wales — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Norway 1.74, Wales 0.98.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
Edge to Norway: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Norway's rating is built from its last 5 matches; Wales's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Norway are bottom on 3 points from 4 games; Wales are 3rd on 3 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
- Norway are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Portugal.
- Wales have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Denmark.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Norway vs Wales
Has the model earned this number?
Norway at 51%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Norway vs Wales
Norway
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2away to Portugal4 October 2026
- L1-2away to Wales1 October 2026
- L1-2Portugal27 September 2026
- W3-2Denmark24 September 2026
Wales
UEFA Nations League
- L0-1Denmark4 October 2026
- W2-1Norway1 October 2026
- L0-2away to Denmark27 September 2026
- L0-1away to Portugal24 September 2026
What these results say
- Norway scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Norway conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Norway had three goals or more.
- Wales conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Wales failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Wales failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Norway vs Wales
- 1 October 2026Wales 2–1 NorwayUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Norway and Wales
Norway
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland30
Wales
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Norway the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Norway against 0.98 for Wales. Norway's attack/defence rating is 1.53/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/0.84 for Wales.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 51% for Norway to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Norway to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Norway's ratings add 7 points and Wales's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Norway's ratings45%+7
- Wales's ratings51%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Norway
- at Denmark17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 35%
Wales
- vs Portugal17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.