League B - 5 · 14 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Kosovo vs Israel UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Kosovo 1–0 Israel

The model makes it 38% Kosovo, 30% draw, 32% Israel — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Kosovo 1.21, Israel 1.07.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Kosovo's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Israel's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Kosovo are 2nd on 5 points from 4 games; Israel are bottom on 2 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
  • Kosovo are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Austria.
  • Israel have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Rep. Of Ireland.
  • Last 3 meetings: Kosovo 1 win to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 October 2026, ended Israel 0–0 Kosovo.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Kosovo vs Israel

47%
Both teams to score
40%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Kosovo win Draw Israel win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 0–011%
  4. 0–110%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 2–07%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Kosovo first; the other scorelines share the remaining 30%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Kosovo at 38%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Kosovo vs Israel

Kosovo

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1Austria4 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Israel1 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Austria27 September 2026
  • W1-0Rep. Of Ireland24 September 2026

Israel

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1away to Rep. Of Ireland4 October 2026
  • D0-0Kosovo1 October 2026
  • L0-3Rep. Of Ireland27 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Austria24 September 2026

What these results say

  • Kosovo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Kosovo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Kosovo had two goals or fewer.
  • Israel did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Israel conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Kosovo412134-15
4Israel402227-52

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Kosovo vs Israel

  • 1 October 2026Israel 0–0 KosovoUEFA Nations League
  • 12 November 2023Kosovo 1–0 IsraelEuro Championship - Qualification
  • 25 March 2023Israel 1–1 KosovoEuro Championship - Qualification
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Kosovo the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Kosovo against 1.07 for Israel. Kosovo's attack/defence rating is 0.82/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.09 for Israel.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 38% for Kosovo to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kosovo to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Kosovo's ratings change nothing and Israel's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage38%+2
  3. Both sides at this match's level37%−1
  4. Kosovo's ratings37%±0
  5. Israel's ratings38%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Kosovo

  • at Rep. Of Ireland17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 21%

Israel

  • vs Austria17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 27%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.