Alianza Lima
vs
FC Cajamarca
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Alianza Lima 2–0 FC Cajamarca
The model makes it 69% Alianza Lima, 19% draw, 12% FC Cajamarca — fair odds of 1.45, 5.26 and 8.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Alianza Lima 2.64, FC Cajamarca 0.85.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
One-sided: Alianza Lima are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Alianza Lima's rating is built from 68 Primera División (Peru) matches and FC Cajamarca's from 31, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Alianza Lima are top on 65 points from 31 games; FC Cajamarca are 16th on 28 points from 31 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Alianza Lima have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Sporting Cristal.
- FC Cajamarca have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to UTC Cajamarca.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca
Has the model earned this number?
Alianza Lima at 69%: of 415 settled 65–100% forecasts, 66.0% came in (average 73.3%). Read it as optimistic. The full record.
Form going into Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
Primera División
- L2-3away to Sporting Cristal29 October 2026
- W1-0away to UCV Moquegua25 October 2026
- W3-1Atletico Grau18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Cusco11 October 2026
- W2-0ADT19 September 2026
FC Cajamarca
Primera División
- L1-3UTC Cajamarca28 October 2026
- L2-4away to Sport Boys25 October 2026
- L0-1UCV Moquegua18 October 2026
- D0-0away to ADT10 October 2026
- L1-2Cusco19 September 2026
What these results say
- Alianza Lima scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Lima won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Cajamarca did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FC Cajamarca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 31 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 52 | 23 | +29 | 65 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca
- 31 May 2026FC Cajamarca 1–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
Leading scorers: Alianza Lima and FC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
GoalsAssists
- E. Castillo196
FC Cajamarca
GoalsAssists
- B. Palacios83
- M. Arrasco75
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Alianza Lima carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.18 for FC Cajamarca.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.64 goals for Alianza Lima and 0.85 for FC Cajamarca.
Alianza Lima rate 0.69 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Cajamarca rate 0.60 and 2.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Alianza Lima a 99.4% chance of the title and FC Cajamarca 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alianza Lima the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Alianza Lima against 0.85 for FC Cajamarca. Alianza Lima's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/2.35 for FC Cajamarca.
How the model reaches 69% for Alianza Lima to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Alianza Lima to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Alianza Lima's ratings add 10 points and FC Cajamarca's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 69%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Alianza Lima's ratings55%+10
- FC Cajamarca's ratings69%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Alianza Lima at home · FC Cajamarca away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Alianza Lima 31, FC Cajamarca 31.
Alianza Lima score most often in the 31–45 minute window (15 goals); FC Cajamarca have let in 11 there.
FC Cajamarca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Alianza Lima have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.