League B - 5 · 14 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Georgia vs Hungary UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Georgia 0–1 Hungary

The model makes it 27% Georgia, 36% draw, 37% Hungary — fair odds of 3.70, 2.78 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Georgia 0.72, Hungary 0.93.

Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 23%, under 2.5: 77%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.

Edge to Hungary: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Georgia's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Hungary's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Georgia are bottom on 2 points from 4 games; Hungary are 2nd on 7 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
  • Georgia have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Northern Ireland.
  • Hungary are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Ukraine.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Georgia vs Hungary

32%
Both teams to score
23%
Over 2.5 goals
77%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Georgia win Draw Hungary win
  1. 0–020%
  2. 0–117%
  3. 1–113%
  4. 1–013%
  5. 0–28%
  6. 1–26%
  7. 2–05%

Scores read Georgia first; the other scorelines share the remaining 18%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Hungary at 37%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Georgia vs Hungary

Georgia

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0away to Northern Ireland5 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Hungary2 October 2026
  • D0-0Ukraine28 September 2026
  • L0-1Northern Ireland25 September 2026

Hungary

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-1away to Ukraine5 October 2026
  • W1-0Georgia2 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Northern Ireland28 September 2026
  • L0-1Ukraine25 September 2026

What these results say

  • Georgia did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Georgia failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Georgia had two goals or fewer.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Hungary had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Georgia402202-22
2Hungary421132+17

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Georgia vs Hungary

  • 2 October 2026Hungary 1–0 GeorgiaUEFA Nations League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Hungary the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Georgia against 0.93 for Hungary. Georgia's attack/defence rating is 0.79/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/0.67 for Hungary.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 37% for Hungary to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hungary to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Georgia's ratings add 3 points and Hungary's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Both sides at this match's level31%−3
  4. Georgia's ratings34%+3
  5. Hungary's ratings37%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Georgia

  • at Ukraine17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 26%

Hungary

  • vs Northern Ireland17 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 38%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.