The model rates their attack at 1.53× the league average and their defence at 0.70× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better — the model rates them above average at both ends. Next they host Wales in the UEFA Nations League on 24 September 2026, a match the model gives them 47%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Next match: Portugal vs Wales
Portugal host Wales on 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. The model makes it 47% Portugal, 27% draw and 26% Wales, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1. It projects 1.96 expected goals for Portugal against 1.15. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Full preview and model analysis for Portugal vs Wales