Sport Recife
vs
Goias
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Sport Recife 2–1 Goias
The model makes it 47% Sport Recife, 27% draw, 26% Goias — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sport Recife 1.71, Goias 1.13.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Sport Recife's rating is built from 35 Brazilian Serie B matches and Goias's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sport Recife are 7th on 54 points from 35 games; Goias are 9th on 52 points from 35 games — Serie B.
- Sport Recife have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Criciuma.
- Goias are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Ceara.
- Last 6 meetings: Goias 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 July 2026, ended Goias 1–1 Sport Recife.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sport Recife vs Goias
Has the model earned this number?
Sport Recife at 47%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sport Recife vs Goias
Sport Recife
Serie B
- W2-1Criciuma24 October 2026
- L0-2Fortaleza EC16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Goianiense11 October 2026
- W2-1São Bernardo6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Athletic Club MG1 October 2026
Goias
Serie B
- W2-0away to Ceara27 October 2026
- D0-0Nautico Recife19 October 2026
- W2-0away to Operario-PR11 October 2026
- W2-1Athletic Club MG6 October 2026
- L0-3away to Novorizontino2 October 2026
What these results say
- Sport Recife conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sport Recife scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Sport Recife.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 47 | 38 | +9 | 54 |
| 9 | Goias | 35 | 15 | 7 | 13 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sport Recife vs Goias
- 22 July 2026Goias 1–1 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 19 September 2024Sport Recife 1–1 GoiasSerie B
- 1 June 2024Goias 3–0 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 26 December 2020Goias 1–0 Sport RecifeSerie A
- 6 September 2020Sport Recife 2–1 GoiasSerie A
- 10 September 2015Goias 1–0 Sport RecifeSerie A
Leading scorers: Sport Recife and Goias
Sport Recife
GoalsAssists
- Chrystian Barletta134
- Perotti121
Goias
GoalsAssists
- Kadu111
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sport Recife the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Sport Recife against 1.13 for Goias. Sport Recife's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.52 for Goias.
How the model reaches 47% for Sport Recife to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sport Recife to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Sport Recife's ratings add 3 points and Goias's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Sport Recife's ratings47%+3
- Goias's ratings47%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sport Recife at home · Goias away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Sport Recife 35, Goias 35.
Sport Recife score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Goias have let in 9 there.
Goias score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Sport Recife have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.