São Bernardo
vs
Athletic Club MG
Serie B prediction
Our model says: São Bernardo 2–1 Athletic Club MG
The model makes it 51% São Bernardo, 25% draw, 24% Athletic Club MG — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: São Bernardo 1.95, Athletic Club MG 1.19.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. São Bernardo's rating is built from 35 Brazilian Serie B matches and Athletic Club MG's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- São Bernardo are 11th on 49 points from 35 games; Athletic Club MG are 14th on 44 points from 35 games — Serie B.
- São Bernardo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Vila Nova.
- Athletic Club MG have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Operario-PR.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 July 2026, ended Athletic Club MG 2–1 São Bernardo.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: São Bernardo vs Athletic Club MG
Has the model earned this number?
São Bernardo at 51%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into São Bernardo vs Athletic Club MG
São Bernardo
Serie B
- W3-2Vila Nova24 October 2026
- L0-1Criciuma18 October 2026
- D2-2away to Juventude11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Recife6 October 2026
- W3-1CRB2 October 2026
Athletic Club MG
Serie B
- L0-1away to Operario-PR23 October 2026
- D0-0away to Avai18 October 2026
- D2-2Londrina13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Goias6 October 2026
- L1-2Sport Recife1 October 2026
What these results say
- São Bernardo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- São Bernardo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for São Bernardo had three goals or more.
- Athletic Club MG did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Athletic Club MG conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | São Bernardo | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 49 |
| 14 | Athletic Club MG | 35 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: São Bernardo vs Athletic Club MG
- 23 July 2026Athletic Club MG 2–1 São BernardoSerie B
- 29 June 2024Athletic Club MG 1–4 São BernardoSerie C
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives São Bernardo the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for São Bernardo against 1.19 for Athletic Club MG. São Bernardo's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.71 for Athletic Club MG.
How the model reaches 51% for São Bernardo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for São Bernardo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, São Bernardo's ratings add 3 points and Athletic Club MG's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- São Bernardo's ratings48%+3
- Athletic Club MG's ratings51%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
São Bernardo at home · Athletic Club MG away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: São Bernardo 35, Athletic Club MG 35.
São Bernardo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Athletic Club MG have let in 10 there.
Athletic Club MG score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); São Bernardo have let in 10 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.