The model rates their attack at 1.31× the league average and their defence at 0.95× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better. Next they travel to Portugal in the UEFA Nations League on 24 September 2026, a match the model gives them 26%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Attacking strength1.31× league avg
Defensive solidity0.95× goals conceded
Next match: Wales vs Portugal
Wales travel to Portugal on 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. The model makes it 26% Wales, 27% draw and 47% Portugal, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1. It projects 1.15 expected goals for Wales against 1.96. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Full preview and model analysis for Wales vs Portugal