The model rates their attack at 0.77× the league average and their defence at 0.96× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better. Next they travel to Georgia in the UEFA Nations League on 25 September 2026, a match the model gives them 31%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Next match: Northern Ireland vs Georgia
Northern Ireland travel to Georgia on 25 September 2026, 16:00 UTC. The model makes it 31% Northern Ireland, 31% draw and 38% Georgia, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0. It projects 1.02 expected goals for Northern Ireland against 1.23. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
Full preview and model analysis for Northern Ireland vs Georgia