League D - 5 · 13 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Andorra vs Gibraltar UEFA Nations League prediction

Our model says: Andorra 0–1 Gibraltar

The model makes it 21% Andorra, 30% draw, 49% Gibraltar — fair odds of 4.76, 3.33 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).

Expected goals: Andorra 0.71, Gibraltar 1.39.

Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,373 settled matches.

One-sided: Gibraltar are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 30 October 2026. Andorra's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Gibraltar's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Andorra are bottom on 1 point from 3 games; Gibraltar are 2nd on 2 points from 2 games — UEFA Nations League, League D.
  • Andorra have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Malta.
  • Gibraltar are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Liechtenstein.
  • Last 4 meetings: Gibraltar 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 September 2026, ended Gibraltar 0–0 Andorra.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Andorra vs Gibraltar

39%
Both teams to score
35%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Andorra win Draw Gibraltar win
  1. 0–116%
  2. 0–013%
  3. 1–113%
  4. 0–212%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 1–08%
  7. 0–35%

Scores read Andorra first; the other scorelines share the remaining 24%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gibraltar at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Andorra vs Gibraltar

Andorra

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-1away to Malta4 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Gibraltar27 September 2026
  • L1-2Malta24 September 2026

Gibraltar

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1away to Malta1 October 2026
  • D0-0Andorra27 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Andorra301213-21
2Gibraltar20201102

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Andorra vs Gibraltar

  • 27 September 2026Gibraltar 0–0 AndorraUEFA Nations League
  • 4 September 2024Gibraltar 1–0 AndorraFriendlies
  • 19 November 2022Gibraltar 1–0 AndorraFriendlies
  • 7 June 2021Andorra 0–0 GibraltarFriendlies

The two sides

Andorra carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.61 for Gibraltar.

The model expects a tight, low-scoring game

Under the hood the model expects 0.71 goals for Andorra and 1.39 for Gibraltar.

Andorra rate 0.46 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gibraltar rate 0.70 and 1.15.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,484 correct results out of 5,156 settled predictions (48%), with 512 exact scorelines (10%).

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Gibraltar the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Andorra against 1.39 for Gibraltar. Andorra's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.15 for Gibraltar.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 49% for Gibraltar to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gibraltar to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Andorra's ratings add 8 points and Gibraltar's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 49%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Both sides at this match's level32%−2
  4. Andorra's ratings40%+8
  5. Gibraltar's ratings49%+9

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.