The model rates their attack at 0.78× the league average and their defence at 0.92× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better. Next they travel to Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League on 26 September 2026, a match the model gives them 29%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Next match: Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
Luxembourg travel to Bulgaria on 26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC. The model makes it 29% Luxembourg, 29% draw and 42% Bulgaria, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0. It projects 1.05 expected goals for Luxembourg against 1.53. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Full preview and model analysis for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria