The model rates their attack at 0.82× the league average and their defence at 1.25× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better — below average at both ends by these numbers. Next they travel to Iceland in the UEFA Nations League on 26 September 2026, a match the model gives them 37%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Next match: Estonia vs Iceland
Estonia travel to Iceland on 26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC. The model makes it 37% Estonia, 30% draw and 33% Iceland, with a most likely scoreline of 0-1. It projects 1.29 expected goals for Estonia against 1.18. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Full preview and model analysis for Estonia vs Iceland