Scotland
vs
North Macedonia
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Scotland 1–0 North Macedonia
The model makes it 50% Scotland, 29% draw, 21% North Macedonia — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Scotland 1.44, North Macedonia 0.76.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,707 settled matches.
Edge to Scotland: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Scotland are 3rd on 4 points from 4 games; North Macedonia are bottom on 0 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
- Scotland have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Slovenia.
- North Macedonia have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Switzerland.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Scotland vs North Macedonia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Scotland at 50% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Scotland vs North Macedonia
Scotland
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2Slovenia6 October 2026
- W2-0away to North Macedonia3 October 2026
- L0-3Switzerland29 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slovenia26 September 2026
North Macedonia
UEFA Nations League
- L0-3away to Switzerland6 October 2026
- L0-2Scotland3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Slovenia29 September 2026
- L0-3Switzerland26 September 2026
What these results say
- Scotland failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- North Macedonia did not win any of these 4 matches.
- North Macedonia failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
- North Macedonia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Scotland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Scotland vs North Macedonia
- 3 October 2026North Macedonia 0–2 ScotlandUEFA Nations League
The two sides
Scotland carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.57 for North Macedonia.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Scotland and 0.76 for North Macedonia.
Scotland rate 0.99 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; North Macedonia rate 0.58 and 1.08.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,484 correct results out of 5,156 settled predictions (48%), with 512 exact scorelines (10%).
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Scotland the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Scotland against 0.76 for North Macedonia. Scotland's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.08 for North Macedonia.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 50% for Scotland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Scotland to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Scotland's ratings add 8 points and North Macedonia's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level36%−2
- Scotland's ratings44%+8
- North Macedonia's ratings50%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Scotland
- at Switzerland16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 15%
North Macedonia
- vs Slovenia16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 20%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.