Liechtenstein
vs
Azerbaijan
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Liechtenstein 0–1 Azerbaijan
The model makes it 14% Liechtenstein, 27% draw, 59% Azerbaijan — fair odds of 7.14, 3.70 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (17%).
Expected goals: Liechtenstein 0.56, Azerbaijan 1.67.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,707 settled matches.
One-sided: Azerbaijan are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 30 October 2026. Liechtenstein's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Azerbaijan's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Liechtenstein are bottom on 1 point from 2 games; Azerbaijan are top on 5 points from 3 games — UEFA Nations League, League D.
- Liechtenstein have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Gibraltar.
- Azerbaijan are unbeaten in their last 3 games (1 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Lithuania.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Azerbaijan at 59% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan
Liechtenstein
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0away to Azerbaijan1 October 2026
- L0-2Lithuania24 September 2026
Azerbaijan
UEFA Nations League
- W1-0Lithuania4 October 2026
- D0-0Liechtenstein1 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lithuania27 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan
- 1 October 2026Azerbaijan 0–0 LiechtensteinUEFA Nations League
A clear gap in the ratings
Liechtenstein carry a model rating of 6.09 against 6.65 for Azerbaijan.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.56 goals for Liechtenstein and 1.67 for Azerbaijan.
Liechtenstein rate 0.36 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Azerbaijan rate 0.77 and 1.15.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,484 correct results out of 5,156 settled predictions (48%), with 512 exact scorelines (10%).
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Azerbaijan the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.56 expected goals for Liechtenstein against 1.67 for Azerbaijan. Liechtenstein's attack/defence rating is 0.36/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.15 for Azerbaijan.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 59% for Azerbaijan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Azerbaijan to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Liechtenstein's ratings add 12 points and Azerbaijan's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level32%−2
- Liechtenstein's ratings44%+12
- Azerbaijan's ratings59%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.