The model rates their attack at 0.91× the league average and their defence at 1.35× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better. Next they travel to Lithuania in the UEFA Nations League on 27 September 2026, a match the model gives them 44%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Next match: Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
Azerbaijan travel to Lithuania on 27 September 2026, 13:00 UTC. The model makes it 44% Azerbaijan, 30% draw and 26% Lithuania, with a most likely scoreline of 0-1. It projects 1.51 expected goals for Azerbaijan against 0.91. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Full preview and model analysis for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania