League Phase - 5 · 25 November 2026, 10:00 UTC

Gamba Osaka vs Port FC AFC Champions League Elite prediction

Panasonic Stadium Suita, Suita

Our model says: Gamba Osaka 3–1 Port FC

The model makes it 73% Gamba Osaka, 15% draw, 12% Port FC — fair odds of 1.37, 6.67 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).

Expected goals: Gamba Osaka 3.36, Port FC 1.16.

Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Gamba Osaka are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Gamba Osaka's rating is built from 58 matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most; Port FC's from its last 6 matches. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 305 matches.

Key facts

  • Gamba Osaka are 3rd on 8 points from 4 games; Port FC are 13th on 3 points from 4 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
  • Gamba Osaka are unbeaten in their last 4 games (2 won), most recently a 3-3 draw away to Pohang Steelers.
  • Port FC have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 7-4 win at home to Beijing Guoan.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Gamba Osaka vs Port FC

67%
Both teams to score
83%
Over 2.5 goals
17%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Gamba Osaka win Draw Port FC win
  1. 3–18%
  2. 2–17%
  3. 3–07%
  4. 4–17%
  5. 2–06%
  6. 4–06%
  7. 3–25%

Scores read Gamba Osaka first; the other scorelines share the remaining 55%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Gamba Osaka at 73%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Gamba Osaka vs Port FC

Gamba Osaka

AFC Champions League Elite

  • D3-3away to Pohang Steelers4 November 2026
  • D1-1Buriram United28 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Newcastle Jets13 October 2026
  • W4-1Công An Nhân Dân15 September 2026

Port FC

AFC Champions League Elite

  • W7-4Beijing Guoan3 November 2026
  • L0-3away to Johor Darul Takzim FC27 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Kashiwa Reysol14 October 2026
  • L1-2Vissel Kobe16 September 2026

What these results say

  • Gamba Osaka went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Gamba Osaka scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Gamba Osaka conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Port FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Port FC had three goals or more.
  • Port FC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Gamba Osaka4220116+58
13Port FC4103914-53

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Leading scorers: Gamba Osaka and Port FC

Gamba Osaka

GoalsAssists

  • T. Usami30

Port FC

GoalsAssists

  • B. Phala32
  • Jude Jacob Soonsup-Bell20

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Gamba Osaka Port FC
0.81 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.63
1.45 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.29
3.36 Model expected goals (this match) 1.16

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Gamba Osaka the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.36 expected goals for Gamba Osaka against 1.16 for Port FC. Gamba Osaka's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/2.29 for Port FC.

How the model reaches 73% for Gamba Osaka to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Gamba Osaka to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides adds 3 points, Gamba Osaka's ratings add 11 points and Port FC's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 73%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage47%+10
  3. Both sides at this match's level50%+3
  4. Gamba Osaka's ratings61%+11
  5. Port FC's ratings73%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Gamba Osaka

  • at Jeonbuk Motors2 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 28%
  • at Ratchaburi9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 40%
  • vs Daejeon Citizen16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 45%

Port FC

  • vs Kashima2 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 21%
  • at SHANGHAI SIPG9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 15%
  • vs Kyoto Sanga16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.