Paris Saint Germain
vs
AS Roma
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Paris Saint Germain 2–1 AS Roma
The model makes it 59% Paris Saint Germain, 21% draw, 20% AS Roma — fair odds of 1.69, 4.76 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 2.57, AS Roma 1.31.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Paris Saint Germain: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Paris Saint Germain's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and AS Roma's from 49 Serie A matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 21 matches for Paris Saint Germain, 14 for AS Roma. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.
Key facts
- Paris Saint Germain are top on 12 points from 4 games; AS Roma are 20th on 4 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Paris Saint Germain are unbeaten in their last 4 games (4 won), most recently a 6-0 win away to Villarreal.
- AS Roma have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Manchester United.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma
Has the model earned this number?
Paris Saint Germain at 59%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma
Paris Saint Germain
UEFA Champions League
- W6-0away to Villarreal3 November 2026
- W4-2Barcelona20 October 2026
- W4-2away to Manchester City14 October 2026
- W6-1Slovan Bratislava9 September 2026
AS Roma
UEFA Champions League
- L2-3away to Manchester United3 November 2026
- W4-0Slovan Bratislava20 October 2026
- L3-4Real Madrid14 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fenerbahçe10 September 2026
What these results say
- Paris Saint Germain won every one of these 4 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Paris Saint Germain had three goals or more.
- AS Roma scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- AS Roma failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- AS Roma conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 12 |
| 20 | AS Roma | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma
- 20 July 2017AS Roma 1–1 Paris Saint GermainInternational Champions Cup
Leading scorers: Paris Saint Germain and AS Roma
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Fabián Ruiz41
- O. Dembélé33
- D. Doué32
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris Saint Germain the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain against 1.31 for AS Roma. Paris Saint Germain's attack/defence rating is 1.48/0.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.69/0.67 for AS Roma.
How the model reaches 59% for Paris Saint Germain to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Paris Saint Germain to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Paris Saint Germain's ratings add 6 points and AS Roma's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage47%+10
- Both sides at this match's level48%+1
- Paris Saint Germain's ratings54%+6
- AS Roma's ratings59%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Paris Saint Germain at home · AS Roma away
League matches only, this season — Paris Saint Germain in the Ligue 1, AS Roma in the Serie A; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Paris Saint Germain 10 in the Ligue 1, AS Roma 11 in the Serie A.
Paris Saint Germain score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); AS Roma have let in 0 there.
AS Roma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Paris Saint Germain have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Paris Saint Germain
- vs Lorient28 Nov · Ligue 1win 65%
- at Toulouse4 Dec · Ligue 1win 56%
- at Aston Villa8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 42%
- vs Paris FC12 Dec · Ligue 1win 55%
AS Roma
- vs Monza29 Nov · Serie Awin 76%
- at Bologna6 Dec · Serie Awin 55%
- vs Sporting CP8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 57%
- at Lazio13 Dec · Serie Awin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.