Al-Nassr
vs
Al Sadd
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al-Nassr 3–1 Al Sadd
The model makes it 72% Al-Nassr, 15% draw, 13% Al Sadd — fair odds of 1.39, 6.67 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Al-Nassr 3.59, Al Sadd 1.36.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 87%, under 2.5: 13%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Nassr are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Al-Nassr's rating is built from 45 Saudi Pro League matches and Al Sadd's from 31 Qatar Stars League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 305 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Nassr are 7th on 6 points from 3 games; Al Sadd are 15th on 2 points from 4 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al-Nassr have won 2 of their last 3 games, most recently a 6-2 win away to Pakhtakor.
- Al Sadd have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Al-Ahli Jeddah.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 December 2024, ended Al-Nassr 1–2 Al Sadd.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Nassr vs Al Sadd
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Nassr at 72%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Nassr vs Al Sadd
Al-Nassr
AFC Champions League Elite
- W6-2away to Pakhtakor2 November 2026
- W3-1Neftchi Fergana12 October 2026
- L0-4away to Al Ain15 September 2026
Al Sadd
AFC Champions League Elite
- D0-0Al-Ahli Jeddah2 November 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Qadisiyah FC26 October 2026
- L0-2Al-Hilal13 October 2026
- L0-3away to Esteghlal FC14 September 2026
What these results say
- Al Sadd did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Al Sadd failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al Sadd conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Al-Nassr | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 6 |
| 15 | Al Sadd | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Nassr vs Al Sadd
- 2 December 2024Al-Nassr 1–2 Al SaddAFC Champions League Elite
- 29 April 2021Al Sadd 1–2 Al-NassrAFC Champions League
- 17 April 2021Al-Nassr 3–1 Al SaddAFC Champions League
- 21 September 2020Al Sadd 1–1 Al-NassrAFC Champions League
- 11 February 2020Al-Nassr 2–2 Al SaddAFC Champions League
- 16 September 2019Al Sadd 3–1 Al-NassrAFC Champions League
Leading scorers: Al-Nassr and Al Sadd
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- João Félix22
Al Sadd
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Nassr the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.59 expected goals for Al-Nassr against 1.36 for Al Sadd. Al-Nassr's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.71 for Al Sadd.
How the model reaches 72% for Al-Nassr to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Nassr to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides adds 4 points, Al-Nassr's ratings add 9 points and Al Sadd's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 72%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage47%+10
- Both sides at this match's level51%+4
- Al-Nassr's ratings60%+9
- Al Sadd's ratings72%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Nassr at home · Al Sadd away
League matches only, this season — Al-Nassr in the Pro League, Al Sadd in the Stars League; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Al-Nassr 11 in the Pro League, Al Sadd 9 in the Stars League.
Al-Nassr score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Al Sadd have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Nassr
- vs Al Shabab26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 61%
- at Al-Fayha3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 60%
Al Sadd
- vs Lusail City27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 54%
- at Al Wakrah3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 59%
- vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 80%
- at Tractor Sazi8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 20%
- vs Al-Ittihad15 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 42%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.