Kashima
vs
Jeonbuk Motors
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Kashima 1–0 Jeonbuk Motors
The model makes it 53% Kashima, 26% draw, 21% Jeonbuk Motors — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kashima 1.77, Jeonbuk Motors 0.93.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Kashima: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Kashima's rating is built from 58 matches and Jeonbuk Motors's from 73 K League 1 matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 305 matches.
Key facts
- Kashima are 2nd on 10 points from 4 games; Jeonbuk Motors are 8th on 7 points from 4 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Kashima are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Buriram United.
- Jeonbuk Motors have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Johor Darul Takzim FC.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kashima vs Jeonbuk Motors
Has the model earned this number?
Kashima at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kashima vs Jeonbuk Motors
Kashima
AFC Champions League Elite
- D0-0away to Buriram United4 November 2026
- W3-0Pohang Steelers28 October 2026
- W1-0away to Công An Nhân Dân13 October 2026
- W7-1Newcastle Jets15 September 2026
Jeonbuk Motors
AFC Champions League Elite
- W2-0Johor Darul Takzim FC3 November 2026
- D2-2away to Beijing Guoan27 October 2026
- L0-2away to Vissel Kobe14 October 2026
- W2-1Kashiwa Reysol16 September 2026
What these results say
- Kashima went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Kashima won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Kashima scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Jeonbuk Motors scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Jeonbuk Motors conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kashima | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 10 |
| 8 | Jeonbuk Motors | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Kashima and Jeonbuk Motors
Kashima
GoalsAssists
- A. Čavrić40
- H. Tokuda21
Jeonbuk Motors
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kashima the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Kashima against 0.93 for Jeonbuk Motors. Kashima's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.27 for Jeonbuk Motors.
How the model reaches 53% for Kashima to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Kashima to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Kashima's ratings add 3 points and Jeonbuk Motors's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage47%+10
- Both sides at this match's level45%−2
- Kashima's ratings48%+3
- Jeonbuk Motors's ratings53%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Kashima at home · Jeonbuk Motors away
League matches only, this season — Kashima in the J1 League, Jeonbuk Motors in the K League 1; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Kashima 20 in the J1 League, Jeonbuk Motors 35 in the K League 1.
Kashima score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Jeonbuk Motors have let in 10 there.
Jeonbuk Motors score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Kashima have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Kashima
- at Port FC2 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 56%
- at Daejeon Citizen9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 32%
- vs Ratchaburi16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 67%
Jeonbuk Motors
- at Ulsan Hyundai FC29 Nov · K League 1win 36%
- vs Gamba Osaka2 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 47%
- vs Incheon United6 Dec · K League 1win 37%
- at Kyoto Sanga9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.