League Phase - 5 · 23 November 2026, 18:15 UTC

Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al-Gharafa AFC Champions League Elite prediction

Basra Sports City, Basra

Our model says: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–1 Al-Gharafa

The model makes it 32% Al Quwa Al Jawiya, 30% draw, 38% Al-Gharafa — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.11, Al-Gharafa 1.25.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Edge to Al-Gharafa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Al Quwa Al Jawiya's rating is built from its last 6 matches; Al-Gharafa's from 31 Qatar Stars League matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 305 matches.

Key facts

  • Al Quwa Al Jawiya are 12th on 3 points from 4 games; Al-Gharafa are bottom on 0 points from 4 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
  • Al Quwa Al Jawiya have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to Al-Wasl FC.
  • Al-Gharafa have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to Al-Qadisiyah FC.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al-Gharafa

49%
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Al Quwa Al Jawiya win Draw Al-Gharafa win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–111%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 1–010%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 0–27%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read Al Quwa Al Jawiya first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Gharafa at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al-Gharafa

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

AFC Champions League Elite

  • L3-4away to Al-Wasl FC2 November 2026
  • W1-0Pakhtakor26 October 2026
  • L1-4Al Ain12 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Neftchi Fergana14 September 2026

Al-Gharafa

AFC Champions League Elite

  • L0-5Al-Qadisiyah FC2 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Al-Ahli Jeddah26 October 2026
  • L1-2Esteghlal FC12 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Al-Hilal15 September 2026

What these results say

  • Al Quwa Al Jawiya failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Al Quwa Al Jawiya scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Al Quwa Al Jawiya conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Al-Gharafa did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Al-Gharafa conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Al-Gharafa had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Al Quwa Al Jawiya410359-43
16Al-Gharafa4004311-80

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al Quwa Al Jawiya (12th, with Al-Gharafa 16th), while our numbers lean to Al-Gharafa. Al-Gharafa rate 0.52 in attack and 1.50 in defence, Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0.41 and 1.89 (lower is better in defence), so Al-Gharafa have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Al Quwa Al Jawiya Al-Gharafa
0.41 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.52
1.89 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.5
1.11 Model expected goals (this match) 1.25

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Al-Gharafa the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al Quwa Al Jawiya against 1.25 for Al-Gharafa. Al Quwa Al Jawiya's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.5 for Al-Gharafa.

Al Quwa Al Jawiya carry a model rating of 6.09 against 6.33 for Al-Gharafa.

How the model reaches 38% for Al-Gharafa to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Gharafa to win. Then home advantage takes away 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Al Quwa Al Jawiya's ratings add 5 points and Al-Gharafa's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage28%−9
  3. Both sides at this match's level27%−1
  4. Al Quwa Al Jawiya's ratings32%+5
  5. Al-Gharafa's ratings38%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

  • at Al Sadd7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 8%
  • vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 19%
  • at Al Shamal15 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 16%

Al-Gharafa

  • vs Al-Arabi SC27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 28%
  • at Al-Sailiya3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 55%
  • vs Al-Nassr8 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 17%
  • at Al-Ittihad8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 12%
  • vs Tractor Sazi15 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 23%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.