League Phase - 5 · 24 November 2026, 12:15 UTC

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Buriram United AFC Champions League Elite prediction

Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium, Shanghai

Our model says: SHANGHAI SIPG 2–1 Buriram United

The model makes it 57% SHANGHAI SIPG, 22% draw, 21% Buriram United — fair odds of 1.75, 4.55 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.35, Buriram United 1.24.

Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to SHANGHAI SIPG: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. SHANGHAI SIPG's rating is built from 60 Chinese Super League matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most; Buriram United's from its last 6 matches. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 305 matches.

Key facts

  • SHANGHAI SIPG are 5th on 7 points from 4 games; Buriram United are 12th on 3 points from 4 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
  • SHANGHAI SIPG have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to Newcastle Jets.
  • Buriram United have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Kashima.
  • Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 November 2025, ended Buriram United 2–0 SHANGHAI SIPG.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Buriram United

65%
Both teams to score
69%
Over 2.5 goals
31%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

SHANGHAI SIPG win Draw Buriram United win
  1. 2–19%
  2. 1–18%
  3. 2–08%
  4. 3–17%
  5. 1–06%
  6. 3–06%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read SHANGHAI SIPG first; the other scorelines share the remaining 50%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

SHANGHAI SIPG at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into SHANGHAI SIPG vs Buriram United

SHANGHAI SIPG

AFC Champions League Elite

  • W4-2away to Newcastle Jets3 November 2026
  • L2-3Công An Nhân Dân27 October 2026
  • D1-1Daejeon Citizen13 October 2026
  • W6-4away to Ratchaburi15 September 2026

Buriram United

AFC Champions League Elite

  • D0-0Kashima4 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Gamba Osaka28 October 2026
  • L0-1Beijing Guoan13 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Johor Darul Takzim FC15 September 2026

What these results say

  • SHANGHAI SIPG scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • SHANGHAI SIPG conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for SHANGHAI SIPG.
  • Buriram United did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Buriram United had two goals or fewer.
  • Buriram United conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5SHANGHAI SIPG42111310+37
12Buriram United403123-13

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Buriram United

  • 4 November 2025Buriram United 2–0 SHANGHAI SIPGAFC Champions League Elite
  • 28 January 2020SHANGHAI SIPG 3–0 Buriram UnitedAFC Champions League

Leading scorers: SHANGHAI SIPG and Buriram United

SHANGHAI SIPG

GoalsAssists

  • P. Ampem61
  • Leonardo21

Buriram United

No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

SHANGHAI SIPG Buriram United
0.7 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.68
1.43 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.85
2.35 Model expected goals (this match) 1.24

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives SHANGHAI SIPG the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.35 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.24 for Buriram United. SHANGHAI SIPG's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.85 for Buriram United.

How the model reaches 57% for SHANGHAI SIPG to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for SHANGHAI SIPG to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, SHANGHAI SIPG's ratings add 4 points and Buriram United's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 57%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage47%+10
  3. Both sides at this match's level48%+1
  4. SHANGHAI SIPG's ratings52%+4
  5. Buriram United's ratings57%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

SHANGHAI SIPG

  • at Pohang Steelers1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
  • vs Port FC9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 67%
  • at Jeonbuk Motors16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 25%

Buriram United

  • vs Kyoto Sanga1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 42%
  • at Kashiwa Reysol10 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 18%
  • vs Vissel Kobe16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 33%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.