Al Shamal
vs
Al-Ahli Jeddah
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al Shamal 1–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah
The model makes it 25% Al Shamal, 23% draw, 52% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 4.00, 4.35 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Al Shamal 1.40, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.26.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Ahli Jeddah are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Al Shamal's rating is built from 31 Qatar Stars League matches and Al-Ahli Jeddah's from 45 Saudi Pro League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 305 matches.
Key facts
- Al Shamal are 8th on 5 points from 4 games; Al-Ahli Jeddah are 6th on 8 points from 4 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al Shamal have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Esteghlal FC.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah are unbeaten in their last 4 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Al Sadd.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Shamal vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Ahli Jeddah at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Shamal vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al Shamal
AFC Champions League Elite
- L0-1away to Esteghlal FC3 November 2026
- W3-1Al-Hilal27 October 2026
- D0-0away to Tractor Sazi12 October 2026
- D1-1Al-Ittihad14 September 2026
Al-Ahli Jeddah
AFC Champions League Elite
- D0-0away to Al Sadd2 November 2026
- W2-1Al-Gharafa26 October 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Wasl FC12 October 2026
- D1-1Pakhtakor14 September 2026
What these results say
- Al Shamal failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al Shamal conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Al Shamal had two goals or fewer.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Al Shamal | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al Shamal against 2.26 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Al Shamal's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/1.25 for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
How the model reaches 52% for Al-Ahli Jeddah to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Ahli Jeddah to win. Then home advantage takes away 9 points, Al Shamal's ratings add 11 points and Al-Ahli Jeddah's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage28%−9
- Al Shamal's ratings39%+11
- Al-Ahli Jeddah's ratings52%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al Shamal at home · Al-Ahli Jeddah away
League matches only, this season — Al Shamal in the Stars League, Al-Ahli Jeddah in the Pro League; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Al Shamal 9 in the Stars League, Al-Ahli Jeddah 11 in the Pro League.
Al-Ahli Jeddah score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Al Shamal have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al Shamal
- at Al Ahli Doha27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 39%
- vs Al-Rayyan SC3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 22%
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 7%
- at Al-Nassr8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 8%
- vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya15 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 61%
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- at Al-Ittihad26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 39%
- vs Al-Ettifaq3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 55%
- vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai8 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 56%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.